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THE RAVEN PARADOX - THE FLAWS IN THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD

HEMPEL’S LOGIC All scientists use reasoning and logic at some stage, to create hypotheses and design robust experiments. In a beautiful and elegant treatise, the German philosopher Carl G Hempel, in 1965, showed that there were flaws in these long-established processes. His Raven Paradox called into question the established processes of inductive reasoning, generalization and falsifiability

THE INDUCTIVE HYPOTHESIS Imagine that a scientist, after years of going for long walks in the countryside, observes that every single raven he has ever seen is black. As a dutiful researcher, he uses inductive reasoning to postulate the hypothesis:

“All ravens are black.”

This is a perfectly acceptable conditional hypothesis. Firstly, it is testable, because you could sample raven populations and verify that they are all black. The statement is also falsifiable because even one non-black raven amongst the sampled population would disprove the hypothesis.

This is all great science, so far, following the established methods of inductive reasoning. The researcher could even design an experiment to sample raven populations, with thousands of ravens observed. If they are all black, the hypothesis is supported and plausible. Over time, repeated experiments and observations further confirm this and the hypothesis becomes accepted as a law.

THE PROBLEM OF GENERALIZATION AND FALSIFIABILITY The first part of the Raven Paradox proposal questions the process of generalization. It is practically impossible to sample every single raven in the world and there may a few non-black individuals. Hempel was not trying to comment upon the exact science, but as an interesting aside, about 1 in 10 000 raven eggs contain partially or fully albino birds.

Most albino birds are more visible to predators, suffer from health problems and may be a localized phenomenon. The odds of seeing an albino raven are very small and sightings are extremely rare. A researcher could sample many thousands of Ravens and not see one white bird, even though they do exist.

Thus, the notion of falsifiability is questioned and undermined by the Raven Paradox. Although the original hypothesis is technically falsifiable, in practical terms it is very difficult to disprove, because the chances of observing a white Raven are very slim. Even if you sampled the entire known population of ravens, there may be an undiscovered group containing a non-black individual.

FLAWS IN THE INDUCTIVE REASONING PROCESS The next part of the Raven Paradox questions the processes of reasoning and deduction that are an integral part of the scientific process. When a researcher states that all ravens are black, the laws of logic demand that this conditional statement has a contrapositive, statement.

Therefore, according to inductive reasoning, “Everything that is not black is not a raven.” This means that every non-black object observed, that is not a raven, equally strengthens the hypothesis. There are a countless number of non-black objects in the universe and we should pity the poor statistician who has to analyze this!

To take the analogy further, another researcher in another part of world, through fluke, may have only seen one raven in their life, which happened to be white. Their deduced hypothesis may be that “All ravens are white.” Every non-white object, which is not a raven, strengthens this opposing hypothesis too. This is the Raven Paradox.

THE END OF THE SCIENTIFIC PROCESS? What does this paradox mean? Has the world of science come crashing down around our ears?

The answer is a resounding NO!

The Raven Paradox is a useful philosophical observation and helps to ensure that we constantly probe and test the steps of the established scientific processes. The examples given in the paradox are simplistic and unlikely, merely serving as an exercise to test the boundaries of the philosophy of science.

In reality, for the vast majority of cases, Hempel’s treatise makes no difference and the normal reasoning and experimental design processes work perfectly well. The paradox does not detract from science, but actually enhances it, by preventing scientists from believing that they have proved something beyond doubt.

The Raven Paradox should remind every scientist of the dangers of generalization and that they must ensure that all hypotheses are realistically falsifiable. If the researcher has said, “All ravens in Norway are black”, this is more realistic as ornithologists could feasibly observe every raven in Norway.

PARADIGM SHIFTS Even long-standing theories, which became established as laws and immovable paradigms, can be proved incorrect over time. Science is really all about testing probabilities and assumption. If something has a 99% chance of being correct then it should be accepted as the likely explanation.

The chances of someone seeing only one raven in their life, which happens to be white, are tiny. However, this is not the same as impossible and that possibility must never be ignored. This is why all experiments are rigorously validated and reviewed before gaining widespread acceptance, to minimize the effects of the Raven Paradox.

For example, Newton’s laws were accepted as truth until Einstein’s theories blew them out of the water. In turn, General Relativity is not the answer to fundamental physics and has been superseded by other theories.

This is how science evolves, by challenging and adapting established paradigms and laws. The creation of Chaos Theory was a perfect example of ‘maverick’ scientists chipping away at the established laws until the theory could no longer be ignored. It eventually burst into the public consciousness and fractal models appeared as prints on T-Shirts.

Hempel’s Raven Paradox stands to remind us all that no theory, however established, should be immune to challenge or debate. As new evidence is uncovered, science must adapt and change to assimilate the new data.

Martyn lives in the beautiful Peloponnese area of Greece and is absorbing the philosophy buried deep within the bones of the land.

He specializes in science and philosophy articles.

Please find the original article at http://www.experiment-resources.com

Martyn’s website is at http://www.amethyst-web.net

The first recorded banking transaction was said to have occurred many centuries ago, somewhere in the area where the empire of Assyrian was established in the form of barter method between ancient Peoples. Usually the assets that are accepted are those that have great value such as stones. This kind of exchange among traders was incorporated in the idea of banking system. The history of banking systems can be traced back as early as 12,000 years ago. In this era, it was said that the banking system already existed faultlessly. The first pieces of evidence in the existence of banking system were first uncovered in 1890 by Dr. Heilpretch, an Archaeology Professor of the University of Pennsylvania in the ruins near the city where the site of ancient Napur is located. The records show the financial statements of the clan of Engadi - the family who first built the banking system that ruled and facilitated the business and investment of the Assyrian Empire. The proof also established the connection of the family to the throne.

The history of banking systems showed that just the mere mention of the word Asiatic House of Sassoon which was the core centre of financial transactions is enough to make the people to believe its truthfulness and efficiency even in the farthest side of the globe. History shows that the family of Engadi was the ancestor of the banking systems that are being used at the moment. Through the history of banking systems, there were so many empires and civilizations that have folded to the increase and plunge of the valuable metals and other stuff that were being used in banking. This process is inevitable and therefore the banking institutions should also be flexible in order for it to cope very effectively on the changes that the fluctuations of money create.

However, between now and then, there have been so many changes already that have been made as far as the banking systems are concerned. Banking has helped the financial institutions to increase its general production and established a system that enhances the perfect flow of exchange or trading between merchants. This circumstance is a strong proof that the banking has a vital role in the proliferation or demise of business amongst nations.

In 1696, The Bank of England - the first ever bank to be established in England, was basically initiated on philosophies which focus on its main objective which is to assist the government of its economic ventures. However, in America, the first individuals who ventured into the banking industry were the private entities. The issuance of treasury money was then ordered by the Continental Congress. But due to the existence of war during those years, the value of the continental currency has constantly gone to the deep level of fiscal crisis.

The history of banking systems reveal that it was only in 1781 that the real banking in the United States began when Robert Morris established The Bank of North America somewhere in Philadelphia with the capital of only 400,000. Under the miraculous guidance of Robert Morris - the first American investor, the bank has climbed to its unparalleled level. The bank has prospered significantly and in 1865 it has become the national bank of the United States of America.

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