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THE RAVEN PARADOX - THE FLAWS IN THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD

HEMPEL’S LOGIC All scientists use reasoning and logic at some stage, to create hypotheses and design robust experiments. In a beautiful and elegant treatise, the German philosopher Carl G Hempel, in 1965, showed that there were flaws in these long-established processes. His Raven Paradox called into question the established processes of inductive reasoning, generalization and falsifiability

THE INDUCTIVE HYPOTHESIS Imagine that a scientist, after years of going for long walks in the countryside, observes that every single raven he has ever seen is black. As a dutiful researcher, he uses inductive reasoning to postulate the hypothesis:

“All ravens are black.”

This is a perfectly acceptable conditional hypothesis. Firstly, it is testable, because you could sample raven populations and verify that they are all black. The statement is also falsifiable because even one non-black raven amongst the sampled population would disprove the hypothesis.

This is all great science, so far, following the established methods of inductive reasoning. The researcher could even design an experiment to sample raven populations, with thousands of ravens observed. If they are all black, the hypothesis is supported and plausible. Over time, repeated experiments and observations further confirm this and the hypothesis becomes accepted as a law.

THE PROBLEM OF GENERALIZATION AND FALSIFIABILITY The first part of the Raven Paradox proposal questions the process of generalization. It is practically impossible to sample every single raven in the world and there may a few non-black individuals. Hempel was not trying to comment upon the exact science, but as an interesting aside, about 1 in 10 000 raven eggs contain partially or fully albino birds.

Most albino birds are more visible to predators, suffer from health problems and may be a localized phenomenon. The odds of seeing an albino raven are very small and sightings are extremely rare. A researcher could sample many thousands of Ravens and not see one white bird, even though they do exist.

Thus, the notion of falsifiability is questioned and undermined by the Raven Paradox. Although the original hypothesis is technically falsifiable, in practical terms it is very difficult to disprove, because the chances of observing a white Raven are very slim. Even if you sampled the entire known population of ravens, there may be an undiscovered group containing a non-black individual.

FLAWS IN THE INDUCTIVE REASONING PROCESS The next part of the Raven Paradox questions the processes of reasoning and deduction that are an integral part of the scientific process. When a researcher states that all ravens are black, the laws of logic demand that this conditional statement has a contrapositive, statement.

Therefore, according to inductive reasoning, “Everything that is not black is not a raven.” This means that every non-black object observed, that is not a raven, equally strengthens the hypothesis. There are a countless number of non-black objects in the universe and we should pity the poor statistician who has to analyze this!

To take the analogy further, another researcher in another part of world, through fluke, may have only seen one raven in their life, which happened to be white. Their deduced hypothesis may be that “All ravens are white.” Every non-white object, which is not a raven, strengthens this opposing hypothesis too. This is the Raven Paradox.

THE END OF THE SCIENTIFIC PROCESS? What does this paradox mean? Has the world of science come crashing down around our ears?

The answer is a resounding NO!

The Raven Paradox is a useful philosophical observation and helps to ensure that we constantly probe and test the steps of the established scientific processes. The examples given in the paradox are simplistic and unlikely, merely serving as an exercise to test the boundaries of the philosophy of science.

In reality, for the vast majority of cases, Hempel’s treatise makes no difference and the normal reasoning and experimental design processes work perfectly well. The paradox does not detract from science, but actually enhances it, by preventing scientists from believing that they have proved something beyond doubt.

The Raven Paradox should remind every scientist of the dangers of generalization and that they must ensure that all hypotheses are realistically falsifiable. If the researcher has said, “All ravens in Norway are black”, this is more realistic as ornithologists could feasibly observe every raven in Norway.

PARADIGM SHIFTS Even long-standing theories, which became established as laws and immovable paradigms, can be proved incorrect over time. Science is really all about testing probabilities and assumption. If something has a 99% chance of being correct then it should be accepted as the likely explanation.

The chances of someone seeing only one raven in their life, which happens to be white, are tiny. However, this is not the same as impossible and that possibility must never be ignored. This is why all experiments are rigorously validated and reviewed before gaining widespread acceptance, to minimize the effects of the Raven Paradox.

For example, Newton’s laws were accepted as truth until Einstein’s theories blew them out of the water. In turn, General Relativity is not the answer to fundamental physics and has been superseded by other theories.

This is how science evolves, by challenging and adapting established paradigms and laws. The creation of Chaos Theory was a perfect example of ‘maverick’ scientists chipping away at the established laws until the theory could no longer be ignored. It eventually burst into the public consciousness and fractal models appeared as prints on T-Shirts.

Hempel’s Raven Paradox stands to remind us all that no theory, however established, should be immune to challenge or debate. As new evidence is uncovered, science must adapt and change to assimilate the new data.

Martyn lives in the beautiful Peloponnese area of Greece and is absorbing the philosophy buried deep within the bones of the land.

He specializes in science and philosophy articles.

Please find the original article at http://www.experiment-resources.com

Martyn’s website is at http://www.amethyst-web.net

According to the American Medical Association Journal, over
100,000 Americans die in hospitals every year due to side effects
from regularly prescribed medications. Throughout America, a
huge amount of medication is prescribed on a daily basis.

The medical community openly acknowledges that fact that it does not
have any cure for several common diseases that affect people.
Most allopathic medicines have side effects that can range from
mild to severe. The reason for this is that most of these chemicals
have certain toxic properties. This is why there have been so many
prescription drugs that got pulled from the market after enjoying
several years of FDA approval.

The sad thing is that very few doctors nowadays bother to inform
patients about possible side effects due to close and cozy
relationships with the pharmaceutical industries.

Half of the truth is that pharmaceutical companies will only tell
doctors as much as they want to and not reveal the complete
picture. Therefore, the doctors are not completely to blame because
they cannot warn patients against side effects of chemicals they are
not aware of.

The trouble is that the business is so profitable is that these
medicine manufacturers are more concerned with profits and FDA
approval rather than the overall effect on the patients.

This is one reason why several doctors are now beginning to
recommend complementary alternative treatments, like herbal
therapies and medicines.

Here are some interesting facts:

• The totally amount of annual profits made by pharmaceutical
companies through sale of drugs in the United States alone is
over $100 billion

• More than 25% of all prescription drugs available contain plant
derivatives

• More than 80,000 types of plants are used all over the world
for medicinal purposes

• Over 75% of the global population depends on herbal remedies
for regular treatment

There are several choices available for people who are looking for
alternative remedies, including Acupuncture, Yoga, Qigong, Tai chi,
Ayurveda, hydrotherapy, massage therapy, homeopathy, energy
medicines, holistic approaches, and aromatherapy. In fact, the
number of herbal remedies available for different ailments equals
(if not exceeds) the number of regular drug treatments provided by
pharmaceutical companies.

The point is that prevention always was and always will be better
than any cure, mainstream or alternative. The advantage of herbal
remedies is that they move an individual towards a lifestyle more
geared toward prevention and cure in the early stages of any
affliction.

Pharmaceutical drugs work only after the problem has
development, they do not try to prevent problems because then the
manufacturing companies would go into a loss.

This is where herbal remedies leave the mainstream drugs behind.
This is also the reason why so many people are daily turning to
herbal therapies.

Herbal remedies treat the cause of the disease and not the
symptoms (like conventional drugs). Herbal remedies also have
almost no side effects.

Gaetane Ross is a Certified Natural Health Consultant who has spent over 4 years focusing on Nutrition and Health. She also specializes in Alternative Medicine, Spiritual Healing and Healthy Lifestyle. Gaetane’s mission is to positively transform the lives of everyone she meets by providing advice on Healthy Living.

Please visit Gaetane’s website for Professional Health Advice or Nutritional information at:

http://Live-O-Natural.com

http://HealthProductsReviewsLive.com

It’s very unusual for this to happen, but …

A sheriff’s deputy managed to win a libel suit this past summer against the Terre Haute, Ind., Tribune-Star.

It’s an interesting case with two twists to it: 1) is a sheriff’s deputy really a “public official,” and 2) what happens when a newspaper truthfully … and fairly … reports a false accusation?

The paper reported that the deputy, Jeff Maynard, was the subject of a sworn allegation of misconduct made by a driver, Sandra Buczek, after a traffic stop. She said Maynard knocked her to the ground with his clipboard and verbally abused her with sexual innuendoes. The paper also reported that the county sheriff doubted the veracity of the allegations, and that Maynard had refused comment. This shows the paper had sought his side of the story.

A state police investigation subsequently found the woman’s allegations to be unfounded … Maynard was not the officer who pulled her over, and her account of the incident was deceptive. The Tribune-Star reported all this under the headline, “Police: Woman Made Up Traffic Stop Story.” It has admitted the allegations were false.

Maynard sued (this was in 2004), and when the case finally came to trial last July, he and his former wife testified that publishing the false allegations had damaged his reputation and caused them emotional distress. The jury agreed, awarding him $500,000 for compensatory damages and a cool $1 million in punitive damages.

The paper plans to appeal, saying the plaintiff hadn’t proven the malice necessary for a finding of libel against a public official, and that allegations of misconduct against these officials are immune from defamation lawsuits.

The standard of proving malice is difficult if not almost impossible as a plaintiff must enter the reporter’s “state of mind” and show he knew the story material was false, or displayed a reckless disregard for the truth. The USA standard is so tough on plaintiffs and easy on the media compared even to legalistically similar countries like Canada and England that some plaintiffs, in this age of the worldwide Internet, now go “libel shopping” to find a more amenable foreign jurisdiction.

For a so-called “private person” in the USA, the libel threshold is easier… you just have to prove negligence. That’s why so much of the battle is over whether the plaintiff is a public or private figure, with the press trying to widen the net as much as possible to get as many people as it can classified as public.

Of course, is a public official only someone who makes public policy, or can it be anyone on the public payroll no matter how lowly … i.e., a sanitation worker? A clerk in the DMV? A jailer? A sheriff’s deputy doesn’t make departmental policy but has power “on the street” … it will be interesting to see if this translates to being a public official.

The Tribune-Star has indicated it will appeal, and that should help its chances … statistics about libel cases are hard to come by as Google searches turn up nothing except for a finding by the Media Law Resource Center in New York that nearly 58 percent of libel cases lose at the trial level or are overturned on appeal… but that doesn’t distinguish between public and private citizens.

Here’s what I hope the appeals judge will do.

– Toss out the punitive damages. It looks like the newspaper tried hard to be fair and thorough in its reporting … so what’s there to punish?

– Keep the $500,000 for compensatory damages, though, for Deputy Maynard … at least most of it. The fact is, the paper printed false information, and quite damaging information. It certainly didn’t intend to, but this is analogous to an automobile accident in which the driver didn’t mean to run down the old lady crossing the street, but did anyway, and must suffer the consequences. What’s more, the paper doesn’t seem to care the slightest bit that the false information it ran hurt the deputy … in fact, its legal brief calls Maynard’s case “clearly erroneous” and “fundamentally misplaced” because it focused on the falsity of the allegations, not on the accuracy of the reporting of false allegations, which is what the paper prefers to emphasize.

– Most importantly, rule that a public official means a policy maker, and the deputy is not a public official. That’s too much of a stretch. When the press engages in these all-too-obvious contortions, it reduces the public’s respect, and I think it’s at least a small part of the reason why newspapers are plummeting in circulation, advertising, staffing and influence. No institution should have unlimited power. An unfavorable libel ruling if upheld for Terre Haute could, ironically, help the press save itself.

Gerry Storch is editor and administrator of http://www.ourblook.com, a political discussion/media analysis website that fills the gap between a blog and a book. In his journalism days, he was a feature writer with the Detroit News and Miami Herald, and an editor with the News and Gannett News Service.

You who read this, may be an engineer, a mechanic, an inventor, a student, or even someone without an engineering background. My observation is that the general public has little knowledge of basic science and even engineers and other professionals often lack in basic insights, in spite of being advanced in their specific fields. This often leads to unfeasible projects and wrong choices, based on wrong assumptions, that no computer can correct.

I myself am a graduated engineer on B.Sc level in both mechanics and electrics. Nevertheless, most of what I know worth knowing as an engineer today, I learned from practical experience and backing it up with own theoretical studies afterwards. It forced me to focus on basics. When you have the basics right, the rest is just methodology, where the computer can be very helpful, but don’t let it “think” for you!

If you have no engineering background, why would you need to have some basic knowledge of all this, you may ask? Well, we live in a technological society and so we are confronted with technological matters and products, that we need to understand the basics of to make proper choices. Ever bought expensive “energy-saving” lamps, while in the same time needing to heat your home? Do you think hydrogen and/or fuel cells are energy sources? Do you think energy can be produced and consumed? Would you invest money in solar panels, or other renewable energy technology for your home? The more these kinds of things apply on you, the more you need to read this article.

The Laws of Newton

The metric, or SI system of units is based on the laws of Newton and so is most of modern mechanics and dynamics. They are essential for basic understanding:

• 1. A mass object persists in its momentary motion to speed and direction, unless it is forced to change it by external forces working on it.
• 2. The acceleration of an object is proportional with the force F working on it and inverse proportional with its mass m. Hence, the acting force is given by: F = m.a
• 3. A force acting on an object, will yield a counter force of the same strength in the opposite direction: action = reaction.

Although these laws sound simple, they are often wrongly applied, or overlooked. Especially the third law appears to be the most fundamental one, still not fully understood by Science and subject for discussions on the highest levels (how can you move a table for example, as it pushes back with the same force?).

Power and Energy.

Power and energy are very often mixed up. For example a lightning, causing a tree to split into half, is very powerful, but it has very little energy, because it lasted only a fraction of a second. Energy is the range of power and time. Power is expressed in Watt and energy in Joule - 1 Watt thus is 1 Joule per second, inversely 1 J = 1 Ws (Watt second). If you during one hour would apply a power of 1000 Watt (1 kW = 1 kJ/s), which approximately is what a flat iron takes, the energy involved is 1 kWh and this is thus equal to 3600 kJ. If you instead would develop that energy in one second, the power becomes 3600 kW, or 3.6 MW - a small power plant! If thus a lightning would have a power of say 10 GW and lasted 1 millisecond (it looks much longer, because of the glowing air around it), it contained an amount of energy of just 10 MJ = 10,000 kJ, not more than 2.8 kWh, or to power a flat iron for around three hours! If you in brochures would read dimensions like kilowatt per hour, or horsepower per hour, you can know that the author has no idea what he/she is talking about.

Energy is also the range of force and traveled way. If you lift up a mass of 1 kg to a height of 1 meter, the force needed for that is the range of mass and gravity acceleration, as per Newton’s second law. On Earth, gravity acceleration is 9.8 meter per second square, which we can round to 10. The lifting force then becomes 10 kilogram meter per second square, which is called the Newton (N) and the work done is then 10 Nm (Newton meter), which is 10 Joule: 1 J = 1 Nm.

The same confusing exists around temperature and energy. What would you rather have in your hand, a 1 inch red glowing sewing needle, or a 4 inch red glowing bolt? Though both have the same temperature, the needle will just cause you a blister, whereas with the bolt, you won’t have a hand any more. The bolt contains much more energy (more mass) than the needle and that makes the difference, not the temperature.

If you would be interested in a solar panel to heat water in your home, the temperature it can yield is therefore not that important. You pay for energy instead and that is what you want to save on. Ideally, a solar water heater should work on a low temperature, so it doesn’t loose too much heat through its insulation and produce a larger water flow instead. You then save more energy = money, because of the higher efficiency on which your solar panel works. To reach your desired water temperature in the kitchen and bathroom, you can heat additionally with say an electrical heater. Combination with a heat pump, also taking up heat from your warm waste water, would give the absolute best results (but high installation costs). Read more about that at the end of this article.

However, manufacturers of solar panels optimize on temperature, which is a good selling argument for the energy-unaware public. At higher temperatures, the size and thus the costs of the whole installation, including storage tank, become lower, which also sells better. They don’t talk very much, or at all about efficiency, being the relationship between how much solar energy hits the solar panel and how much of that you can use in the end. They talk about capacity instead - solar energy is “free”!

Next to consider is Pressure. Usually it is that of a fluid, like a gas. It is expressed in Pascal (Pa) which is force (N) per unit of area and thus 1 Pa = 1 N/sqm (Newton per square meter). Atmospheric pressure at sea level is roughly 100 kPa, thus 100,000 N/sqm. In technical descriptions it is also often called the bar - 1 bar is thus atmospheric pressure. Pressure can also be seen as stress in materials, tension. In the SI system of units, pressure and tension are thus both expressed in Pascal.

Then there is contact-pressure. This is what makes a knife work. The sharper a knife, the smaller its edge area (A) is and for a given force (F), the contact-pressure (F/A) becomes larger, also expressed in Pascal. With this, all units in the SI-system are given. It has only three basic units, the kg for mass, the meter for length/distance and the second for time. No conversions are needed

Circular Motions.

From Newton’s third law follows the perception that on an object in mechanical rotation, two forces are working, a centripetal one, pulling the objects towards the center of rotation, and a centrifugal one, tending to push it out radially away from that center. If the mechanical contact with the center of rotation suddenly is broken, in that very moment no forces are working on the object any longer and thus it will move as per Newton’s first law, meaning it keeps its speed in the direction it had in the moment just before losing contact. That speed was directed tangentially and thus the object will “fly out” in the tangential direction, not radially. In fact, centrifugal forces do not exist, because then there would be no resulting force to keep an object in its circular path - only the centripetal force exists. This is a hot discussion point in Science - Newton’s third law.

Hence, when you are in a car that makes a sharp curve, your body does not push against the inside of the car (centrifugal), but the inside of the car pushes your body into the curve (centripetal). As per Newton’s first law, your body wants to keep its direction of motion, straight ahead, just before entering the curve - it’s called inertia. There is only one force, the centripetal one (free motions in gravitational fields, such as orbits of planets and satellites, are described in General Relativity, which we won’t discuss here).

From this follows the notion of “inertial” systems, which are frames of reference in which Newton’s laws are valid. An accelerated system is thus not an inertial system, because motions described in it, would not follow Newtonian laws. This causes a severe point of confusion, as follows:

If you are an inventor of “fantastic” mechanical machines, your really should understand the implements of impulse. Impulse (p) is the amount of motion, being the range of speed (v) and mass (m), which is equal to the range of working force (F) and the working time (t): F.t = m.v = p. An impulse has a direction, which (kinetic) energy has not and therefore impulses can have a positive or a negative sign between opposite directions of motion. Because impulse is a function of force (the time-derivative of it), Newton’s third law requires that the sum of all impulses of moving components within a system (machine) must be zero. However, many inventors, not being aware of this, “create” a resulting impulse, that accelerates the system.

What they do is mixing up reference systems and impulse with energy. If you consider a mechanical system (machine), that has a certain total mass, but also internally moving parts, the resulting impulse of those parts, the sum of all impulses, will be zero relative the system’s center of gravity, but not necessarily relative a resting frame of reference (an observer) in which the whole system (machine) may be moving (at constant speed). The sum of kinetic energy of all the internally moving parts, is of course a positive value (negative energy is less than nothing). This value is the system’s internal (kinetic) energy. Since this internal energy is needed to keep the internal parts moving, there cannot be any energy left to accelerate the system (machine) as a whole. On the contrary, energy must be applied all the time to overcome the friction that the internally moving parts are subjected to, otherwise they would come to a halt. This applied energy converts to heat.

Sadly, there are several patents on according designs, claiming to be “inertial drives” for space-ships or whatever. Their inventors, some of which may have ruined their private economies on this, were not confident with the basics of dynamics, as outlined above. See some of those unfortunate examples here: http://jnaudin.free.fr/html/IPEmain.htm

Mechanical Engineering Concepts

Now, imagine you had a ball that is perfectly spherical and a table that is perfectly smooth, so when the ball is placed on the table, the contact area becomes a dimensionless point - zero whatever. Then the contact-pressure F/0 becomes infinite, regardless how light the ball is - something must break. No material could withstand an infinite contact-pressure and from this follows that not even with the most fantastic materials, yet to be developed, a frictionless machine could ever be built (that would require ideal point and line contacts).

Some inventors have a problem with that, like a patent I once saw, where a 15 cm (6 inch) diameter cylinder was rotating at 1500 rpm in a somewhat larger cylinder, supported by a number of smaller rollers in the size of just a few millimeters - it looked like a ball-bearing in cross section. These rollers would rotate at roughly 50,000 rpm. You look in any bearing table what the admissible speeds are and you would see that this design exceeds the limits by far; self-destruct through friction!

Another problem that many inventors have is judging leakage potential. Leakage is a function of pressure ratio, not of pressure difference and it varies to the third power with the clearance gap between the boundaries. It means that the same sealing device, that would leak in an however deep submerged submarine, would leak more in a space craft, because there the pressure ratio to vacuum is infinite - many don’t seem to know that. In addition, even less known, is that the best sealing is obtained with a single, unbroken sealing line, ideally a circle.

Therefore, the reciprocating circular piston machine will always prevail over any rotational displacement concept, that contains several broken (discontinuous) sealing lines. These rotational concepts can be used and are used in low-duty applications, where they have their advantages, such as in air-driven hand tools, industrial compressors, etc, but not in heavy-duty combustion engines. This is why the Wankel never became commercial, except a few years in cars from German NSU, that went bankrupt on it in the 1970-ies.

One can see the most ‘horrible’ designs in various patents, the worst I saw being an engine, consisting of a torus shaped tube, with a slot over its inner length to let through a piston rod, attached to a circular piston moving in that torus, while flat plates were sliding radially in and out the torus to form alternate compression and expansion chambers - at best a good cream-wiper (but it got a gold medal in an inventors contest - its glorious funeral)!

Many inventors have tried to find a linear transmission, that can replace the pendulous crankshaft. It has various disadvantages, such as causing vibrations of higher order, but most of all causing side-forces on the pistons, resulting in excessive wear and leakage there. I once read a statement from a development manager at Volkswagen in Germany, that the crank mechanism alone stands for 20% of the fuel consumption. All alternative designs I have seen, indeed convert the linear piston motion into a rotating one on the shaft and without causing side forces on the piston, but instead they generate the same or higher side forces on sliding parts elsewhere in the design, causing excessive friction and wear there - definitely no fuel savings. I have found a design that does not contain any sliding parts, but consists of rotating components only (I got the idea, when I was with my kids in a merry-go-round). Had I only come up with this a good 100 years ago, I could have made it, but now the pendulous crankshaft is so well established in automated production lines, that it can’t be changed any more. I almost hade it made with Compair-Reavel in the UK, around 20 years ago, but also they found it in the end too costly too change their production line - my bad luck!

Thermodynamics

Another basic thing, often misunderstood, is that energy can’t be “used up”. Surely, the gasoline you put in your car is used up, but the energy it developed is still there, to stay around for all eternity. All the chemical energy that was stored in the original fuel, is converted to heat. Firstly at high temperatures in the car’s engine, but then decaying to heat at ambient temperature. The rest is also converted to heat by friction, the tires on the road, the transmission, air resistance, etc. All energy that we “use” with our technology, finally decays to heat at ambient temperature, even the light from your lamps at home does that.

So is there the term “waste heat”, as opposed to “useful heat”.What is useful? Take “energy-saving” lamps for example. If you live in a cold climate, where you have to heat your home, a normal cheap hot glowing light bulb actually delivers 100% useful energy, 5% of which is light, the rest is heat, that helps heating your home, but this is not what you are told. Only the 5% light is brought forward as “useful” and you are told that you are “wasting” 95% with a normal glow bulb. Only in warm climates, especially third-world countries with very expensive electricity, or in cooled rooms, the use of energy-saving lamps makes sense!

The misconception by the public is that useful energy is “consumed” and waste energy is not. The real situation is that the useful energy is just used, but not “consumed” and is wasted after usage just the same. That’s why your energy bill comes back every month - nothing of what you used, is left. Therefore you read everywhere about “energy production” and “energy consumption”, not in the least used by decision makers in energy politics! It indicates that there is no basic understanding in public society, what energy is about and so unfeasible projects are initiated, wasting time and (your tax) money.

The First Law of Thermodynamics says that energy cannot be created (produced), nor destroyed (consumed). We can only convert energy from one form to an other and the Second Law of Thermodynamics says that it all finally must decay to heat at ambient temperature and so it does. Even though many know this, that is end of story for them, as far as the First Law is concerned. However, the scientific definition of the First Law says that if you add energy to a system to bring it in an other condition, you must remove the same amount of energy to bring it back in the original condition. Naturally, because if we could remove more, energy would be created from nothing and if less, energy would disappear into nothing. This formulation has great consequences, as follows:

Let’s consider an ideal hydrogen (water) engine, by which we pour water in it on one side and the same water AND useful mechanical energy comes out on the other side. Because the engine returns the same water as was applied (firstly as steam, but than condensing to water at ambient temperature), there cannot be a net output from the engine - it would have been created from nothing. If there is an output anyway, this means that the according energy had to be applied as well, not only the water. Indeed, we must apply energy to split the water in hydrogen and oxygen. If that could be done at an efficiency of 100% (electrolysis has only 60%), then that energy could appear as mechanical work on the shaft. This then means that the hydrogen only was an energy converter, definitely not an energy source!

Hydrogen does not occur in free form on Earth, like fossil fuels do and therefore hydrogen can never be an energy source. Give me a dollar for every article that says different and I will be well off!If there would be a method to obtain free hydrogen at considerably less energy input than what combustion with oxygen gives in output, yes, then it would become an energy source, but such a method has not yet been found.

Instead of splitting water, hydrogen can be obtained from natural gases, such as methane. It shows however that the overall efficiency of such a hydrogen loop in a combustion engine would have a somewhat lower overall efficiency than using the natural gas (or bio-gas) directly in a combustion engine. Moreover, hydrogen is a very tricky gas to store and to handle. Not only is it very explosive, but it tends to exude through most metals as well. It is very voluminous, around ten times more than air and thus needs to be brought on high pressures to keep the volume down and that takes a lot of compression energy. Liquefying it would even take more energy, plus a temperature problem for storage as well. There are materials that can absorb hydrogen gas at a lower temperature and give it off again at a higher temperature, surely the better way, but also not very cheap and practical in a distribution system. All together, there is no economy in hydrogen engines, but it may have an environmental advantage - the only viable argument for using it, provided the consumer wants to pay the higher costs, do you?

The same can be said from fuel cells, working on hydrogen - they produce water (steam) and need a steady supply offresh hydrogen and oxygen to work continuously- whereto get how? Yes, the energy that fuel cells are supposed to “produce”, originally came from fossil fuels to manufacture the input hydrogen. Can we call that “non-pollutant” energy? A fuel cell is NOT an energy source, just an energy converter.

The importance of using spontaneity in physical processes is largely unknown, because it has to do with entropy, something not explained very well in schools. So I had to learn in practice, by trial and error, that if you want to separate fluids from each other, you must try to find a design by which this happens as spontaneously as possible, for example with “smart” piping, rather than using filters. The more you try to force it about with various design details, the more you will lose in efficiency - you “produce” entropy as it wrongly is called. The more you force about a process (introduce “irreversibilities”, as it is called correctly), the greater the change of entropy is, the lower the efficiency becomes. Entropy is an essential part of the Second Law of Thermodynamics, not to say the whole of it, but yet there is no general agreement among scientists, what entropy actually is - very confusing.

The Second Law is actually not a “real” law, because it is based on observations only, not on any physical principle. This means that if the observations would change, the Second Law would have to change too, but this hasn’t happened yet, which makes it a law. In everyday life we experience that most things don’t happen spontaneously, only accidents, or coincidences in general, do (”Murphy’s Law”). If we want things to happen, we usually have to do work for it. Hence we could formulate the Second Law as: “for free only the Sun goes up”. On the internet, this formulation of the Second Law is widely violated by millions of web sites, trying to let you believe that for a small investment, you can become rich very soon. But that is not engineering (rather “religion”), so I leave you with that.

In engineering, especially when it comes to renewable energy sources, the Second Law is also widely violated, or rather ignored. Oh yes, solar energy is free, but you can’t use it for free, why not? Because it is widely spread in Nature and thus the effort to collect it into one point of usage and to present it in a usable form, is very large and you have to pay for that effort. Using fossil fuels is cheaper and easier and that’s what we do instead. The same would be valid for nuclear power, but there the “environmentalists” have been successful to obstruct it - with thanks from the Arab oil sheiks.

Renewable energy is something the Second Law is very much against, because it wants to spread it out in the environment, not to collect it for our use. Therefore these renewable energy sources are high-entropy ones, meaning you must do a lot of work to make use of them (low efficiency). There is one exception though and that is hydro-electric power. The forces of nature actually do all the work for us, by collecting rain water in high situated reservoirs, ready for us to use; they are low-entropy sources. But also here the “environmentalists” choose to favor the oil sheikhs instead.

Next would be heat pumps, which are inverted refrigerators. A heat pump absorbs heat from the environment, usually from the ambient air, by generating a cold surface there. This surface is small, but it actually collects heat from large, remote areas, brought by the wind. Also here, the forces of nature do the collecting work for us, a second exception on the rule (compare with a storm blowing aside of your wind propeller, without affecting it, or the Sun burning a hole in the ground next to your solar panel, also without affecting it).

The heat pump, as the name says, pumps up the ambient heat to a higher temperature that we can use, for example to heat water. Also its drive power is given off as heat at usage temperature, is thus no loss (where it is in a refrigerator) and so a heat pump can give off between 3 and 4 times more energy than what it takes to run it. If all the billions of dollars that to date and ongoing are wasted on wind propellers and solar collectors of various kinds, would have been used to provide all households with heat pumps, many power plants could have been shut down by now and no more oil would be burned in homes for heating. This however is a truth with modification. A huge polluting industry, likely using fossil fuels, would be behind all those heat pumps, but that would be the same also for wind propellers, solar panels and the production of hydrogen and fuel cells, all having to be financed by the consumers and making profit as well - the Second Law all right:”For free, only the Sun goes up”

Rudolph N. J. Draaisma
CONSULTING ENGINEER
Online expert advice for your best solutions, against a small fee for short-term issues.
Expert on Energy Conversion & Recovery Systems
also providing: CAD drawings, Techn. Documentations, Calculations, Translations, R&D projects
The Alternative Energy and Engineering Site

So you want to know how to attract a Sagittarius woman? It’s pretty easy to see why. Sagittarius is considered the sign of the truth seeker, as well as a deep lover of knowledge. So here are some tips that should help you get a Sagittarius woman, as well as help you out with women in general.

1. It’s Time To Be Choosy

When you’re picking up a girl do yourself a favor and don’t settle for the very first girl that you end up talking to. It’s okay to be selective. There are plenty of women out there, including Sagittarius woman, so please remember that. Before you go talking to a woman in the hopes of picking her up and make sure you know what you want. Being picky can give you the confidence that you need when you approach women.

2. Dress For Your Success

Before you head out for the night, figure out what your buddies are wearing and try to dress just a little bit better than them. You don’t want to overdo it. Don’t be the only one wearing a suit if your buddies aren’t wearing a suit. But this is the right occasion to try and dress a little bit better than them. Women definitely notice how you dress. The three main things they look at: fingernails, wristwatch, and shoes. You don’t have to spend a lot of money to look good. And you don’t look out of place, just sharp.

3. Go From On To Off

What this means is to show some interest in a woman, and then back off. It messes with their psychology when you go from hot to cold. You don’t want to just always show them the attention. Pulling your attention back keeps them interested. It is the whole push pull theory. Try switching between these two states of flirting and watch how much it drives them crazy.

4. Be The Catch

Make sure that you are the one that is being pursued by the woman. You don’t want it to be the other way around. You need to make yourself the prize. This shows that you have high value. And that is exactly what women want out of a man. Why do you think women are attracted to the alpha male?

5. Stay Up To Date

If you really want to impress a woman, stay up to date on celebrity gossip and current issues. Women love a man that is interesting. By staying current you’ll have something to talk about. And remember this, poking fun at celebrities is way more interesting to a woman than talking about something heavy like politics. Try to stay light and playful.

You can get a Sagittarius woman by being an Alpha Male.

Learn more now: Alpha Male System!

In this article I separate fact from fiction and take an objective look at how to understand the proper approach to Forex trading in general, how to select an EA for trading and how best to use your EA to capture maximum long-term gains.

Far too many traders approach the Forex market with the idea that Forex trading is about making money quickly. Forex is not a get rich quick solution. It is vital that you understand this concept well otherwise do yourself a favor and don’t trade Forex at all.

You must understand that you can accumulate a great deal of wealth by trading Forex but it will NOT happen over night. If you are looking to make an over night killing, you are better off buying a lottery ticket or taking your chances at the casino

Take it from someone who has been around the Forex ‘block’ more times than he cares to remember: Use a logical and analytical approach in selecting your EA for trading. The key feature I look for is consistency.

Closely examining accurate back test results is one method to use in evaluating the consistency of an EA. The first thing to look for in the back test results is the percent accuracy of the test itself. Look for a minimum of 90 percent accuracy. Next, look at the number of wins and the average amount won. Look next at the number of losing trades and the average loss.

When comparing back test results between EA’s be sure you are comparing apples to apples. Compare lot sizes traded, percent accuracy and the results themselves.

It would be nice if you could find an EA that never lost a trade. While I agree that such a ‘holy grail’ scenario is seductively attractive it simply is not realistic and you should beware of anyone promising such results.

Forex trading is all about numbers. The numbers that matter most in selecting your EA are the number of winning trades times the average win versus the number of losing trades times the average loss. This ratio will help you gauge the consistency of your EA.

Trust me, if your average win were to equal your average loss then you can do extremely well in Forex if you win just 60% of your trades!

Let’s talk about two key money management dynamics that can make you or break you in Forex. The first is the concept of consistency. Being able to deal with changing market conditions is a far more important trait for an EA than some pie in the sky promise of winning every trade. Winning consistently - even if they are relatively small wins - is the real key to selecting an EA.

Small consecutive wins add up to a big bank account. Trading is never about making a huge amount of money in a short time. It takes time for an account to grow. Let me repeat, if you are after big wins in a short period of time then stick with gambling in the casinos and leave the Forex market alone.

The Forex trader’s biggest enemy is greed. Don’t try to go over the top. Trade a good system. Place small trades and be patient. If you have selected your EA well then it will pay off. I promise.

Far too many traders will purchase an EA, plug it in, and trade it for a few days. The first time it loses a trade they are back on Google looking for a new EA. This is a big mistake.

In Forex, learning to control your greed is a prerequisite for achieving great wealth. Take controlled risks, never let your greed take over your decision making process.

Every EA has good times and bad times. Be ready to treat the bad times just as you would the good times. If you have selected your EA well then the good times will out weigh the bad times and you will make progress. Does that mean that you will never have any bad times? No absolutely not. A losing trade will happen at some point in time.

Maybe not tomorrow, next week, or next month, but eventually you will lose a trade. Your job as a trader is to treat that loss with the same respect that you treat the gainers.

Your job as a trader is to manage your money in such a way that when the inevitable loss comes you stay in the game and recuperate. Not to jump around and find another so-called solution.

Remember the story of the tortoise and the hare: slow and steady wins the race!

The key to long-term success in Forex is to include correct money management into your trading. The bottom line is to control your risk. Never, trade more than you can afford to lose.

The key is to grow your account little by little over time. Yes you will get losers but if the system you are using is accurate enough those losers will be recovered. Again, this is where patience comes in by not jumping from one solution to the next.

The second, and even more powerful, key dynamic is ‘profiting on your profits’. In other words, compounding.

It is amazing how an account can grow when you begin to profit on your profits and you are patient and disciplined. That is the secret to winning the Forex game. Small consecutive wins boosted by the profits on your profits concept.

Forex trading is all about numbers. No more no less. As long as your winners out weigh your losers you are on your way. Start small - grow big.

Trading is not about making money quickly; it is about intelligently growing your account over time with proper money management. And compounding - profiting on your profits. Taking controlled risks and being patient.

Finding a consistent EA is great but that’s not enough. Your job is also to learn how to use the EA properly. It’s not enough to just purchase the EA you have to be smarter than the others in using it.

I hope I can bring you closer to what Forex trading is all about. Forex trading can be very profitable so long as it is done correctly and not perceived as a get rich quick solution.

If you:

Apply good money management rules
Avoid the get rich quick mentality
Control your greed
And be disciplined…

Then you will be light years ahead of the competition. You belong to that special top 1% percent group. The group that looks at the ‘hares’ and understands how silly their approach to trading really is

The name of the game is to grow big but at the same time to be strictly disciplined. If you understand that the statistics are on your side then you won’t let a losing trade deviate you from your objective of making it big time in this exciting game.

If you take to heart the concepts we have talked about here today then you will surely get your fair share of the Forex market - the largest and most liquid market on earth.

Disclaimer - This article is for educational purposes only. It is not offered as investment advice. The reader assumes all responsibility for any and all profits or losses incurred by his or her trading activities.

David R. Jaymes is a Writer and Forex Trader. He graduated from the University of Maryland, USA with a degree in Agricultural and International Economics. He has prepared a Special Free Report that shows you how easy it is for you to use the exact techniques used by today’s most successful traders. To get your Free Report, head on over to: http://www.4x-rox.com

Within just a few weeks it will transform your life; No more stress or sleepless nights, you will be happy and life will be fun again.

This is NOT a get rich scheme (SORRY THERE IS NO MAGIC FORMULA).

(STOP NOW- do not use credit to finance your lifestyle, no more loans no more credit cards. (You are going to be a cash only person) stop giving away you hard earn money, once you are clear of debt and turned the corner you can then re-focus on becoming wealthy. The facts are you have NO option you MUST clear your debts, if you fail the consequents are Foreclosure on your home, your car reclaimed by the HP Company, court orders, bankruptcy.)(SORRY but that is the hard truth).

Quote from the course:

Nevertheless, that will NOT happen to you because you are going to implement the recovery plan that we will set out for you.

Are you in Debt? we receive many e-mails asking if an internet, e-commerce business can transform debt into wealth. We cannot promise that, to start any business takes commitment, you must be focused and have a business plan, set key objectives. You also need to have time to develop your new business.

If you are in Debt, you are often under pressure from your creditors, stressed. First consider you priorities:-

- Would you like to pay off your mortgage?
- Would you like to pay off your bank overdraft,loans and credit cards?
- Follow our plan, clear your debts, and become financially independent. (THEN you can move to the next level how to become wealthy).
- You cannot wish to pay off your debts; you need the commitment and the WILL to make it happen, which will require changes to the way you control your money and your spending habits.

Create a new future, turn debt into wealth:

Course content:

1. Step one make the commitment.
2. Actions that will move your bank account into the black.
3. Golden rules to success
4. Review your current financial status.
5. Were you ever taught how control your money?
6. Money makes money, your key objective to get debt free.
7. Why do we fall into the credit card trap?
8. Those cards must go. (High interest crazy)
9. You must operate on a cash only basis. ( you will quickly see the benefits, it is amazing the extra money it creates)
10. HP the monthly payments that cause you worry and stress.
11. Now you have the mind set to pay off ALL your debts.
12. Manage your spending. (Impulse buying will blow your plan right out of the water)
13. Being in debt can be due to bad luck; however, it is far more likely to be our own fault, failing to manage our finance.

The Golden rule, NEVER spend above your means, which includes loans credit cards, over spending on luxuries, cars, holidays, entertainment, drinking, smoking.

Evaluate you current spending habits, YOUR OBJECTIVE to clear all debts, have money in the bank, plan to make money and ensure a new future. Eliminate stress, worry, and depression. Freedom happiness and wealth is NOT just a dream. YOU CAN DO and YOU MUST DO IT. (Develop that mind set believe in yourself, do it for your family and for your well being and health).
We have set the scenario, now we take one-step at a time and make it happen.

Above all, you must be honest, with your personal assessments; you must also be realistic, DO not set impossible goals.

Step one make the commitment

You are about to take the most important step to clearing your debts and achieving personal wealth.

1. I am totally committed to following the advice in this manual, I will make changes in attitude and the way I manage my money, necessary to achieve my main objective build a debt free and wealthy future.

2. In order to plan your systematic recovery and transform debt into wealth we need to put our cards on the table, hide nothing, be honest and complete the following questionnaire.
Please complete the following questionnaire.

It will provide the status of your current financial position. (sorry in this format the table forms do not work, it is better if you are working with the correct forms/ tables ( read on once you are committed to giving it your best shot. you can go to our web page and see the FREE course complete with forms)

No Answer the following questions (Truth only) Yes or No YES NO

1 Do you carry you credit card balance over each month
2 Do you have more than three credit cards that on the upper limit
3 Do you ever use one credit card to pay debts or pay off other cards
4 Do you only pay the minimum payment on credit cards each month,
5 Have you reach your maxim limits on all your cards
6 Are you are struggling to even make the minimum payments
7 Do you have more than 10 years to pay on your mortgage
8 Do you have your car on a finance agreement
9 Have you taken out a second mortgage to pay off debts
10 Are you planning to buy a new car
11 Do you have personal loans, bank over drafts
12 Do you have store cards to purchase goods
13 Are you living beyond your means, struggling every month
14 Have you ever had your services turned off for non payment
15 Is the stress and worry causing health problems
16 Is the debt having an impact on your family relationships
17 Have you tried to find ways of earning more money
18 Are you under extreme pressure from your creditors
19 Are you considering bankruptcy
20 Are you in trouble with the bank or mortgage society

Now we face the decisive moment.

Total all the “YES” numbers

If you scored, 4-0

Not too much to worry about we can soon have you on the way the wealth and happiness.

If you scored, 8-5

You need to review your spending and focus on your options to make money.

If you scored, 13-9

You are managing to pay your way; you earn the money then have to pay it to your creditors (high interest). You need to concentrate on reducing your debts by controlling you excessive spending. Implement our debt payment scheme so you have spare money to invest, use you income and spare money to generate wealth.

If you scored, 17-14

You are on the ragged edge, struggling to pay your way, urgent action is required to stem to flow of outgoing money, consider every penny you spend do you really need to buy new clothes or have that expensive evening out. Focus on channeling the money saved to pay off debits, review the debts that are costing you high interest and pay them off. Once you see the benefits, your recovery will gain momentum.

IF you are 20-18

You are clearly deep in debt, you must be unhappy worried and stressed which will effect your well being and health.

We will help you get back on track, however it will take commitment by you and all the members of your family and you need to cut your spending. Put a plan into place to pay off the most pressing debts. NOW you need the WILL to implement the advice we will give you. (Think new future better life no worries or stress, security) Make this commitment get out of debt, to change your spending habits. This is the hard task. Do that and then you can look forward to a new future?

Learn from my mistakes:

Speaking from experience, I went to university attained a MBA you would think that I have developed the self-control to monitor my spending and invest my money wisely. NO! I did not I was spending more money than I was earning clothes, cars, holidays, living on my credit cards for a few years I had a high old life.

For nearly three years, I continue to impulse buy. Then I started robbing Peter to Pay Paul using one credit card to pay of another, transferring balances, taking out loans. WOW, I had spiraled deep into debt. Under pressure from all the creditors, could not sleep, each month all my salary already committed to creditors, outgoing much higher than my income.

OK it was my fault silly middle class girl who over spent. Why was I such a fool? Well we all want material things. We associate fast cars, designer clothes, with happiness. And fall into the trap of the media and the advertisers, to the offers of credit cards and loans.

I cannot recall any of my family or tutors teaching me the importance of being in control of financial affairs.

Now there are hundreds of ways in which we can fall into debt, I was a miss - guided fool. With many, it is bad luck, ill health, out of work, family problems. They wanted the best for their children.

The objective is to review the status, then formulate a plan transform debt into wealth.

1. Control Spending and credit management.
2. What to do with our salary (Money in / Money out)
3. Make changes, plan a new financial life.
4. Learn how to invest money, or develop a business.
5. Consider the future, pensions and retirement.

First, we will talk about the positive aspects of life and future. We all dream of winning the lottery, becoming millionaires over night. (It will not happen) The fact is if you do spend £10 per week on the lottery or the football pools. That is £520 pounds a year, invested weekly with compounding interest at 8% would provide you a substantial amount of money by the time you are 65 years old - depending on the number of years. On average for most people it would be well over £500,000.
Most of us will earn well over a million pounds in our life time, for example if you earn £30,000 for 40 years that is £1,200,000.

However, the sad fact is most people have no idea how to save or invest money, they give all they earn to banks, credit cards, loans, and high interest is hard-earned money lost forever. (Crazy but true).

If you are living on credit than you are giving away a high percentage of your money, money that, you could be investing and being paid interest.

STOP NOW- do not use credit to finance your lifestyle, no more loans no more credit cards. (You are going to be a cash only person) stop giving away you hard earn money, once you are clear of debt and turned the corner you can then re-focus on becoming wealth.

The facts are you have NO option you MUST clear your debts, if you fail the consequents are Foreclosure on your home, your car reclaimed by the HP Company, court orders, bankruptcy. (SORRY but that is the hard truth).

Nevertheless, that will NOT happen to you because you are going to implement the recovery plan that we will set out for you.

We now need to first motivate you, set key objectives and realistic goals.

We all have different life styles, often based on the salary we earn.

The rule the higher you fly the harder you fall. Applies:

If you live in a large expensive house, you will have much higher mortgage repayments. Top of the range BMW, you impress no one every one knows you are living on credit.
Therefore, before you try to impress with a new swimming pool or ponies and motor bikes for the children, stop and think can we afford to do this, would we be better to wait and pay cash. (Of course you would you know it makes sense).

If you are the average person, living in a three-bed semi, with a second hand car, and are a hourly paid worker, maybe in a factory or in the construction industry, the same philosophy applies. Yes it would be nice to impress your family and friends with a tan from a expensive holiday or a top of the range car, believe me they will only be impressed the first time they see it. You will be the one faced with 3 years of HP repayments, higher insurance, and the cost of fuel.

OK I know what you are thinking every one has a mortgage has credit cards and debits, Stop because you are having negative thoughts, NO it is not OK to be in debt, it complete madness and will never make you happy it will only bring you worry and stress..

Therefore, no matter what your station in life is the same principles will apply.

We are taking time to outline the reasons most of us find ourselves in debt, because if you can not accept there is a problem you cannot take the actions required to eliminate the problem (In this case debt).

We could show many examples of credit cards. They make it so easy, you always spend three times more than, if you were buying cash. Then the situation gets even worst, let us assume you have four credit cards, average interest 16.9% they have a combined outstanding balance of £5,200. If you only pay the minimum monthly payment = to 3% of the outstanding balance it will take you 20 years to pay those cards off and your payment would total £9,720 - work it out you have paid them £4,520 interest.

You know in your heart that you get a much better deal paying cash, often a lower price and you pay NO interest.

OK we never promised a magic over night formula, we did promise the plan that WILL take you from debt to being wealthy.

Key Objectives:

• STOP —using credit NO loans or credit cards, now you are 100% cash. Think before you spend, do not buy until you have spare cash.
• This is NOT an option, if you are at present deep in debt, you will realized, the high life is over. You will be receiving legal letters. If you do not stop using credit, then you will reach a point where that decision will not be yours. Because once you are exceeding the limit on your cards and fail to make the payments, the credit card companies will put you on stop, and immediately inform the credit agencies. Then you are really in trouble, all the other loan companies credit cards will follow suit quickly. Your bank will also withdraw your over draft facility and monitor you account as high risk.
• Cut up those credit cards. Use only cash, and only when you have spare cash, you need every penny to pay off your debts. You must learn to live a cash based life style.
• Pay off ALL your debts including mortgage, ( we will tell you how to do that in the shortest possible time)
• Learn to invest ALL spare money wisely, your main objective will be to generate wealth,
• Phase 1 set aside money in your emergency saving fund.
• Phase 2 Focus on building long-term retirement wealth, we will guide you to save investment that will generate income without the need for you to work. (You will have financial freedom) Enjoy life travel, play golf, go fishing. Have fun been happy.
• Now in the first few years you are going to throttle back, drop out of the fast lane, no more living on credit and accumulating debts that will eventually bring you crashing down, maybe cost you every thing house, car, family. (That would be devastating)
• Work hard for real freedom and independence; soon you will be the one being in charge in complete control of your own destiny.
• Simple rules, cash only, no loans, no more monthly HP agreements.
• Your family and children will need to understand that from now on all spare money will go to pay off debts. ( Hard to say no to a tearful little girl who wants a new play station game) Still a lot better than telling a teenage daughter, we are going to lose the house because we have not paid the mortgage.
• OK this is not rocket science; it is just plain common sense. You can dream and it is important to have the vision that in 5 years you can be completely debt Free.

The plan:

Prioritize your debts, (we will provide the formula).

List All your creditors ( Debt is money you owe and are legally committed to repay) (Expenses = Money you pay out each month for Gas, Electricity, food, petrol, take items that you pay every year for example car insurance, and divide by 12).

First, clearly understand how much you actually owe, what rate of interest you are paying.
Complete the following work sheets designed to help you and your family to understand where the money going. Invite innovated think and ideas as to how you could save money.

(A) Monthly Living Expenses

Living Expenses Actually cost Saving

Rent
Council Charges
Electricity -
Gas
Telephone / internet
Water Rates
TV company ( Sky)
Food (total for every thing)
Entertainment.
Children Pocket money
Car expenses
Car 1 petrol (only)
Car 2 petrol (only)
Maintenance
Road fund Tax
Insurances
Home insurances
Medical Care
Children’s Education Expenses Books Tuition etc
Clothing and Miscellaneous
Other expense

Total

(B) Major Purchases - over 12 months divided by 12

Holidays
Car purchase
Major House improvements
New Furniture
New Kitchen equipment
Garden plants tools
Gym or Golf club fees
Season tickets
Recreation expenses
Miscellaneous expenses
Cash spent ATM etc
Total C/f to summary

(C) Debt payments

Name of Debt Total

Balance Monthly Payment % interest Full amount or min

Mortgage
Second Mortgage
Car Loan 1
Car loan 2
Bank Loan
Over draft
Credit Card 1
Credit Card 2
Credit Card 3
Credit Card 4
Other debts

Total C/f to Summary
(D) Monthly Income
Monthly take home salary
Second income
Benefits DHSS
Pensions
Part time job
Internet income

Total C/F to Summary

Totals carry forward

Personal Financial Statement - SUMMARY the points of reckoning, you now need to insert you figures.

E.g., total income - total Living expenses- total debt payments.

Which we hope will give you a positive result, e.g. more income than outgoings? Referred to as disposable income a true measure of your current capacity to decrease you debts and increase your wealth. Taking these initial steps should have provided you with the base information to empower you and your family to focus your efforts and give you the means to measure your progress.

It is important that you share this information with your family.

Depending on the result of Income (- outgoings) your objective will be to ensure that you have a minimum of 10% of your total income as disposable income, that is the money you are going to use to clear your debts in order of priority.

It will depend on your original check on status if you were in the 18-20 range then the figures may indicate that you have debts and expenses that exceed you present income.

If this is the case, you have NO option: You must cut your spending. All luxuries, none essential expenditure, holidays, two cars, smoking, drinking, golf club, gym, entertaining, clothes, furniture, children games, garden plants flowers. In place of golf the gym going to the pub, find spare time work earn more money.

If you DO NOT TAKE THESE ACTIONS NOW, you WILL lose your home, you will face bankruptcy. This is the hard line truth.

Total income
Total Living Expenses=
Debt Payments
D - Total of AB&C =
Disposable Income

Right now your head will be spinning, you were expecting an easy way out, there is no easy way out it takes total commitment.

We did warn you TOTAL commitment.
NO MORE CREDIT CARD spending
NO MORE LOANS
NO MORE impulse spending
NO MORE Holidays (Until you are clear of debt)

You are now on the road to recovery, you are going to transform you debt into wealth.
You first step was to create disposable income = Income minus outgoings.

Your starting point should be 10% your monthly gross income.

Write down each debt in the first column 1, total balance in column 2 the minimum payment in column 3, then you divide the total balance by the monthly payment, insert the answer in column 4.

Next, you need to prioritize your debts in column 5 Start with the lowest division answer in column 4 until they are numbered.

Column 6 that is where you start to see the benefit, to show the debts as they are cleared (Paid off).

To know how many payments to pay off: You divide column 2 by column 6 = the number of months in column 7.

First you use your disposable income to increase the payments on debt 1, what will quickly clear that debt, at which point you now have even more disposable money all off which you use to accelerate the payment of debt 2, as each debt is paid you roll it over to really accelerate the payment on the next debt. Once you pay all debts off, then you have ALL of the disposable income to invest. Now you have gone from debt to building wealth.

Invest wisely NEVER go back to credit cards or loans only live on a cash basis. Moreover, plan for retirement.

Name of Debt Total
Balance Monthly
payments Division
Answer Pay off

Priority Additional monthly payments Months to pay off

Column 2 = total debt £————————

Column 3 = Total Monthly payments £————————
We trust that you can see the philosophy, and the benefits of using ALL your disposable money E.G. Income minus outgoings to accelerate repayment of your debts, then the amazing acceleration that takes place as each debt is written off you have extra money to pay of the next debt ( In order of priority).

This is a WIN -WIN situation, once you see it actually working and no more creditors chasing for money, do not relax maintain total commitment this is not just about clearing your debts this is about a new life, (CASH ONLY).

In just a few years, you will be in a position to create wealth for you and your family. You will have taught your children how to manage money, never to worry about you future again.

Now you will really have the respect of your piers, friends and family. You will own every thing the house, cars. Take that five star holiday all paid up front CASH.

I wish you good fortune;

If you need further help or would like the Excel forms to monitor and record transactions FREE please do not hesitate to contact us.

Your Faithfully

Kenneth Yearsley

(Think new future better life no worries or stress, security) Make this commitment get out of debt, to change your spending habits. This is the hard task. Do that and then you can look forward to a new future?

For nearly three years, I continue to impulse buy. Then I started robbing Peter to Pay Paul using one credit card to pay of another, transferring balances, taking out loans. WOW, I had spiraled deep into debt. Under pressure from all the creditors, could not sleep, each month all my salary already committed to creditors, outgoing much higher than my income.

Learn from our mistakes: (It take WILL and commitment, but will change your life for ever) if I can be of any assistant please contact us: (It is free genuine no sign up or sales pitch ) ken@makemoney.us.com

When you seek for information about the Forex Autopilot System, you will find the most varied claims, as some say that it will make you rich in a month or a week, or that it will never place a losing trade. I may agree up to some point that the Forex Autopilot is a generally accurate system and therefore you can make money by using it.

But I disagree with those who want to make us believe that the Forex Autopilot System is infallible, or with those who say that it will make 99%-100% winning trades, as this is totally divorced from reality. First of all, the developers of the Forex Autopilot System claim a performance of 96% winning trades, so the truth has to be somewhere between that percentage and a lower figure.

My personal record with the Forex Autopilot shows that it will have good and bad days, something I know even an expert trader would have. Certainly, during the first three months with the system I got 112 winning trades against 3 losing ones, but then with all the economic turmoil around the world the fourth month was really terrible, but still it managed to make a profit. Over the last few months the Forex Autopilot System is back to its early performance, but the truth is that it will occasionally get it wrong, make no mistake about it.

Therefore, if you are thinking about getting this system do so, it will make you money, just be aware that it is a good performer and not a perfect or infallible one. Indeed, the Forex Autopilot will always make more winning trades than losing ones, so a monthly return of about 30%-60% on your investment is an honest and realistic expectation, as some months it may deliver 130% while others only 10% (which is not bad).

By trading with small lots, you can turn a small investment into double the initial amount in about five months, but you will not make millions overnight that is for sure.

My advice to anyone who asks me about the Forex Autopilot System is get it and get feel of what it does, which is basically a risk free task because you will get an eight week money back guarantee and the system can be used in a demo account, meaning that if you do not find it useful you can get a refund and end of story.

You will get some insightful information about the Forex Autopilot System at this site: http://www.specialonlinebusinessreviewauthority.com.

On September 19, the SEC suspended short selling for 799 financial companies to “protect the integrity and quality of the securities market and strengthen investor confidence”. Since then the Dow has lost 165 points. The ban ends tomorrow.

Eric Roseman says the legislation targets the wrong traders. Short sellers make the market more transparent. By blocking them, the SEC is violating the free market.

The ban has so far failed to stabilize the markets. Don’t be surprised if the government now moves to target other safe havens such as gold and offshore accounts. Eric recommends investors move quickly to secure their assets in European strongholds like Switzerland and Liechtenstein.

This from The Sovereign Society:

By targeting and banning short-sellers, the SEC is barking up the wrong tree and removing one of the last market-based sanctuaries in a dreadful year for financial assets.

This legislation won’t help the markets. In fact, it will ultimately create a new round of broad-based selling when the SEC finally lifts the bans.

This isn’t the first time a country has banned short selling.

Recently in June 2007, Pakistan banned short-selling practices. Now, just 15 months later, the market in Karachi is down by another third, so that obviously didn’t work.

England also banned short-selling in the 17th century following the collapse of the Dutch tulip mania. That effort also failed to calm the markets.

The SEC’s ban on financial stock short-selling is primarily why global stocks posted huge gains last Thursday and Friday. Short-sellers scrambled to cover their bearish bets or were forced to buy back the same stocks they were betting would continue declining.

This classic “short squeeze” won’t help alleviate market sentiment and points blame to the wrong segment of the market. If a company or sector should be valued at a lower multiple, then the government shouldn’t interfere in a free market. This response will only delay another day of reckoning as banks face mounting losses on traditional lending practices, including credit cards, auto loans, and other facets of lending.

We Short Because It Makes the System More Honest

Short-selling means you’re borrowing shares because you anticipate selling them in the future at a lower price. It allows you to be bearish on stocks that you don’t own. From a practical standpoint, short-selling also creates truth in an otherwise corrupt marketplace where some companies dodge accounting rules and fudge their books to hide losses.

The latest salvo fired at short-sellers this month targets the wrong group of traders. These short-sellers actually help to create liquidity in the markets and stem market bubbles.

Short-sellers try to honestly target aggressive accounting practices. And more often than not, these traders help create balance in an otherwise heavily manipulated market.

Short-sellers are also racking up the best returns in 2008 among diversified hedge fund strategies. By some accounts, short-sellers have gained more than 10% this year through August and they’re up 12.5% over the last 12 months. In September, estimates point to another 5% gain for this group, while traditional equity benchmarks have crashed by about a quarter.

One of the more respected short-selling specialist firms - Kynikos Associates in the United States - was one of the first firms to isolate questionable accounting at Enron. As I’m sure you heard, Enron CEOs were either prosecuted or heavily fined and will never be allowed to manage a public company again.

SEC Downgraded to Junk - Thanks to Chris Cox

SEC Chairman Christopher Cox has finally awakened from a deep sleep that lasted 13 months. Presidential candidate, John McCain, publicly denounced Cox last week claiming the first thing he would do if elected this fall is fire Chris Cox. I agree.

The SEC was literally asleep at the wheel until July. They were doing absolutely nothing to police aggressive accounting by financial company CEOs. And they did nothing to warn investors about suspicious accounting, aggressive sales practices involving mortgage-backed securities, or the bubble that inflated among mortgage offerings.

The other high-risk, dangerous securities, including collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), credit default swaps (CDSs), and other credit derivatives are not even regulated, let alone scrutinized by the SEC.

What was the SEC doing all this time as financial markets were hemorrhaging?

Instead of doing its job ensuring that U.S. capital markets are properly regulated, the SEC is now pointing fingers to short-sellers and blaming this highly skilled group of traders and analysts for the markets’ crash earlier last week.

Yet Cox, in a public statement earlier in his tenure claimed, “We need the shorts in the market for balance so we don’t have bubbles.”

Shorting Is American as Apple Pie

By banning short selling the government is effectively saying that it’s trying to determine where stock prices should settle. That’s not what a free market is about. This response damages the credibility of the free market system and ultimately suppresses the true value of an entity.

If the SEC and other governments can ban short-selling, then one has to wonder which segment of the market is next to face regulation or restrictions…

Is Gold Next?

In 1933, under Executive Order 6102, FDR confiscated gold ownership. Under extreme market circumstances governments can impose extraordinary measures that usually do not benefit the poor, unsuspecting investor.

The current financial crisis in the United States is the worst since the Great Depression and might warrant other measures that confiscate foreign currencies, precious metals, or other international assets and securities. Anything is possible.

As this crisis eventually fades or possibly gets worse, investors should use the offshore private bank account window before it closes. It’s still legal to move money to Europe. The best destinations for asset protection remain Switzerland, Liechtenstein, and Austria.

Having some gold stored in these European countries is a powerful safe-haven strategy amid extreme economic circumstances. It will give you the high margin of safety you’ll need to protect yourself from the next financial debacle.

Eric serves as an editor and Investment Director for The Sovereign Society’s Commodity Trend Alert. Eric’s talents include blending a dozen or more alternative investment funds to produce consistent returns to traditional asset classes and making commodity based recommendations with huge upside and limited downside.

So far we’ve briefly had a look at the core arguments put forward by the Alarmists - whose who support the theory of man-made global warming - and the Realists - those who, at the moment, don’t. However in Australia much of the support for the Alarmists’ point of view is based on distorted information, untruths and naked lies.

Australia at the mercy of Mother Nature

Of all the countries in the western world, Australia is the one that suffers most from the vagaries of the weather. Somewhere, at some time, part of the country is experiencing drought. Never, though, is the whole of country so affected at any one time. At the moment large parts of inland Australia on the Pacific side of the country are experiencing this problem whilst other areas are enjoying more favorable conditions.

Some people believe the present drought is the worst ever - it may be the worst in living memory, but it’s not the worst since European civilization started in 1788. The drought of 1895 to 1903 is considered to be the one that caused the most damage to the economy and life in general.

The Australian farming community accept drought as a fact of life. Since the 1860s when accurate statistics were first started to be used there has been 9 periods of major drought, excluding the current situation. In addition there has been 6 droughts of lesser intensity during this period.

During the periods of pre-European settlement, that is pre-1788, droughts were just as common. Examination of rings on trees and coral support this view. In fact evidence from coral taken off the Barrier Reef in north Queensland indicate a 20 year drought in that area from 1660 to 1680.

Drought is a constant part of Australian life

However, in spite of the overwhelming evidence that droughts are a regular feature of Australian life, the media still insists that the present drought is caused by global warming. Even the saner and more responsible parts of the press push the issue that Australia’s current predicament is being exacerbated by the government’s late signing of the Kyoto agreement.

Again more unsubstantiated nonsense from the people who are happiest when they’re dispelling doom and gloom.

Droughts in Australia are caused by the activity of the El Nino Southern Oscillation - ELSO - a complex weather pattern that influences climatic conditions throughout the Pacific region. This phenomenon only became apparent in the late 70s and although much more work needs to be done to understand its complexity, weather scientist are now able to determine the coming of droughts to Australia fairly accurately.

The average person is being duped

However, the average man in the street attributes changes in climatic conditions in Australia to the theory of global warming, rather than the more likely affect of the ELSO. Aided by the media who attribute every unusual circumstance to world-wide global warming, from the increase in bush-fires to the desalination problems of the River Murray to the decline in coral growth on the Great Barrier Reef, the public blindly follow what they’ve been told.

So successful are the Alarmists in Australia that 2 out of 3 people writing letters to the press and web sites support the concept of man-made global warming. In actual fact, Australia’s last Federal election, in November 2007, was won by the party most vigorous in supporting this theory. A gullible public were frightened into voting for a party that claimed to be able to play God.

As an indication of the untruths and down right lies coming from the Australian Alarmist camp, consider this gem - possibly taken from the Joseph Goebbels propaganda manual ‘How to Deceive the Public and get away with it’:

…but in 2007 our Prime Minister still finds it hard to accept the possible existence of a human driven climate change. - taken from home.iprimus.com.au/foo7/droughthistory.html

So what this web site is saying is that the drought of 1895 to 1903 was caused by man’s industrial activity.

Quite plain and simple, it’s a gross lie. Unfortunately many believe it.

This is the fifth part of an attempt to put some balance into the ongoing international controversy that is the theory of man-made climate change.

Like most people, the author takes a keen interest in the world-wide controversy of climate change and global warming, and the alleged effect this will have on life on earth. He also takes an interest in more mundane issues such as how to lose weight and the increasing popularity of satellite TV.