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THE RAVEN PARADOX - THE FLAWS IN THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD

HEMPEL’S LOGIC All scientists use reasoning and logic at some stage, to create hypotheses and design robust experiments. In a beautiful and elegant treatise, the German philosopher Carl G Hempel, in 1965, showed that there were flaws in these long-established processes. His Raven Paradox called into question the established processes of inductive reasoning, generalization and falsifiability

THE INDUCTIVE HYPOTHESIS Imagine that a scientist, after years of going for long walks in the countryside, observes that every single raven he has ever seen is black. As a dutiful researcher, he uses inductive reasoning to postulate the hypothesis:

“All ravens are black.”

This is a perfectly acceptable conditional hypothesis. Firstly, it is testable, because you could sample raven populations and verify that they are all black. The statement is also falsifiable because even one non-black raven amongst the sampled population would disprove the hypothesis.

This is all great science, so far, following the established methods of inductive reasoning. The researcher could even design an experiment to sample raven populations, with thousands of ravens observed. If they are all black, the hypothesis is supported and plausible. Over time, repeated experiments and observations further confirm this and the hypothesis becomes accepted as a law.

THE PROBLEM OF GENERALIZATION AND FALSIFIABILITY The first part of the Raven Paradox proposal questions the process of generalization. It is practically impossible to sample every single raven in the world and there may a few non-black individuals. Hempel was not trying to comment upon the exact science, but as an interesting aside, about 1 in 10 000 raven eggs contain partially or fully albino birds.

Most albino birds are more visible to predators, suffer from health problems and may be a localized phenomenon. The odds of seeing an albino raven are very small and sightings are extremely rare. A researcher could sample many thousands of Ravens and not see one white bird, even though they do exist.

Thus, the notion of falsifiability is questioned and undermined by the Raven Paradox. Although the original hypothesis is technically falsifiable, in practical terms it is very difficult to disprove, because the chances of observing a white Raven are very slim. Even if you sampled the entire known population of ravens, there may be an undiscovered group containing a non-black individual.

FLAWS IN THE INDUCTIVE REASONING PROCESS The next part of the Raven Paradox questions the processes of reasoning and deduction that are an integral part of the scientific process. When a researcher states that all ravens are black, the laws of logic demand that this conditional statement has a contrapositive, statement.

Therefore, according to inductive reasoning, “Everything that is not black is not a raven.” This means that every non-black object observed, that is not a raven, equally strengthens the hypothesis. There are a countless number of non-black objects in the universe and we should pity the poor statistician who has to analyze this!

To take the analogy further, another researcher in another part of world, through fluke, may have only seen one raven in their life, which happened to be white. Their deduced hypothesis may be that “All ravens are white.” Every non-white object, which is not a raven, strengthens this opposing hypothesis too. This is the Raven Paradox.

THE END OF THE SCIENTIFIC PROCESS? What does this paradox mean? Has the world of science come crashing down around our ears?

The answer is a resounding NO!

The Raven Paradox is a useful philosophical observation and helps to ensure that we constantly probe and test the steps of the established scientific processes. The examples given in the paradox are simplistic and unlikely, merely serving as an exercise to test the boundaries of the philosophy of science.

In reality, for the vast majority of cases, Hempel’s treatise makes no difference and the normal reasoning and experimental design processes work perfectly well. The paradox does not detract from science, but actually enhances it, by preventing scientists from believing that they have proved something beyond doubt.

The Raven Paradox should remind every scientist of the dangers of generalization and that they must ensure that all hypotheses are realistically falsifiable. If the researcher has said, “All ravens in Norway are black”, this is more realistic as ornithologists could feasibly observe every raven in Norway.

PARADIGM SHIFTS Even long-standing theories, which became established as laws and immovable paradigms, can be proved incorrect over time. Science is really all about testing probabilities and assumption. If something has a 99% chance of being correct then it should be accepted as the likely explanation.

The chances of someone seeing only one raven in their life, which happens to be white, are tiny. However, this is not the same as impossible and that possibility must never be ignored. This is why all experiments are rigorously validated and reviewed before gaining widespread acceptance, to minimize the effects of the Raven Paradox.

For example, Newton’s laws were accepted as truth until Einstein’s theories blew them out of the water. In turn, General Relativity is not the answer to fundamental physics and has been superseded by other theories.

This is how science evolves, by challenging and adapting established paradigms and laws. The creation of Chaos Theory was a perfect example of ‘maverick’ scientists chipping away at the established laws until the theory could no longer be ignored. It eventually burst into the public consciousness and fractal models appeared as prints on T-Shirts.

Hempel’s Raven Paradox stands to remind us all that no theory, however established, should be immune to challenge or debate. As new evidence is uncovered, science must adapt and change to assimilate the new data.

Martyn lives in the beautiful Peloponnese area of Greece and is absorbing the philosophy buried deep within the bones of the land.

He specializes in science and philosophy articles.

Please find the original article at http://www.experiment-resources.com

Martyn’s website is at http://www.amethyst-web.net

A recent article in Scientific American outlined results from a study showing that girls completing a linguistic abilities task showed greater activity in brain areas implicated specifically in language encoding. Boys, on the other hand, showed a lot of activity in regions tied to visual and auditory functions.

The implications are numerous. It appears that boys need to be taught language both visually (with a textbook) and orally (through a lecture) to get a full grasp of the subject, whereas a girl may be able to pick up the concepts by either method.

From our experience, we’ve observed over the years that there are consistently more girls (OK, women) than boys in our classes. On average, women make up about 60%-70% of the client base, and it’s not surprising to see all-female classes at times. There may be a number of reasons why this is the case. Perhaps language learning is simply more appealing to women. Others would say that girls like the romance associated with learning a second language. It seems like now we have some more compelling biological reasons behind this phenomenon.

However, it has also been interesting to observe the guys who come along for language classes. Maybe it’s not politically correct to say so, but it also appears that the guys who tend to want to learn a second language (in spite of being supposedly biologically inferior in this respect) are more sophisticated, confident, urbane and adventurous. If guys are indeed behind the proverbial eight-ball, perhaps those who choose to learn a language need these qualities in order to succeed. Either that or simply because they wish to be in the presence of beautiful, intelligent women. There’s certainly nothing wrong with that!

Kenneth Leong is Director of Euroasia Language Academy in Auckland, New Zealand. They offer European and Asian language courses to native English speakers. Visit their site at: http://www.euroasia.co.nz/

The three letters “PKD” have become a shorthand for readers of Philip K. Dick’s work to identify themselves and find others. The man’s initials inspire admiration among fans and ridicule among detractors.

I had the great honor and privilege of spending ten years with a great genius. Those were the final ten years of Phil’s life.

Falsely branded as a brain-damaged drug addict, Philip K. Dick continued producing stories in which the ideas of the great philosophers entered into concrete reality. The allegations of insanity hurt him, but he refused to engage in a futile argument with his accusers.

If producing one of his finest works, A Scanner Darkly, did not prove that he had all of his faculties, then any effort to demonstrate his mental health was futile.

Yes, he was diagnosed as manic depressive, and later as bipolar (the same thing, with a new label), but his tendency to experience wide mood swings had nothing to do with drugs. His hyperactivity was simply a symptom of his premature birth. He also suffered from asthma and hypertension, due to his having been born six weeks early. Phil and his twin sister were tiny babies. In fact, Phil was one of the smallest babies to survive, and his twin sister did not survive. Medical science has advanced considerably since 1928, yet even today, premature babies experience a plethora of medical problems as they grow up, and they do not live as long as full-term babies.

When my husband began experiencing visions in February 1974, he might have been suffering minor strokes due to his high blood pressure, which kept getting out of control. At one point, he was hospitalized for ten days so the doctors could closely monitor his blood pressure while they adjusted his medication.

Minor strokes might explain the flashes of bright light that Phil saw, but they would not explain the content of his visionary experience. I was there, and I know that he was not abusing any substances, so you can throw that one out the window.

Besides, there were some visible, tangible events. For example, one night the radio kept playing after I unplugged it. One afternoon a yellow van pulled up out front, and workmen in white coveralls brought half a dozen large, unlabeled cardboard boxes into the vacant apartment next door. We were curious, so when we found the door unlocked, we went inside. We found all sorts of electronic equipment in the hall closet and a working telephone in the kitchen of that supposedly vacant apartment. Strange cars began pulling up in the alley behind our apartment and sitting there for up to half an hour at a time.

The visions stopped when we moved out of that apartment, so I can’t help thinking that the electronic equipment in the next apartment had something to do with Phil’s experience.

That having been said, Phil viewed the phenomenon as an attack by unknown forces followed with a rescue by equally unknown forces. It began with voices coming over our bedside radio and telling him to die, and it ended with a message of hope and healing.

I can’t help believing that Phil experienced something very real, but that something defies explanation. He spent the last eight years of his life trying to explain it, and he wrote thousands of pages about it, but he never found a satisfying solution to the puzzle of his visionary experiences of 1974.

Perhaps the most interesting part of the experience was that people presented themselves to him as time travelers. They said that somebody had changed history, that they didn’t like the outcome, and that they were attempting to repair our timeline to produce a more hospitable future. They introduced the idea of orthogonal time, which appears prominently in Phil’s Exegesis. They explained that alternate timelines exist perpendicular to the timeline that we experience, like a series of dominoes stacked above our world. The time travelers, or rather time meddlers, were capable of opening gaps in our timeline and dropping one or more sections of the alternate timelines into those gaps.

The time travelers warned Phil that the United States was in danger of becoming a police state much like the scenario of George Orwell’s dystopic novel 1984. Our television sets would watch us, indoctrinate us and numb our senses to the reality of an increasingly restricted life. Our friends and neighbors would turn us in to the authorities for the most minor offenses, fearing that they would be punished if they failed to report our smallest transgressions, such as putting out our trash cans on the wrong night or crossing the street in the middle of the block instead of at the corner The government would control our thoughts, as well as our actions, down to the smallest detail. Orwell’s “Big Brother” was becoming a reality. Those predictions seemed possible, although improbable, in the midst of the War on Drugs. Today, on the other hand, that possibility is becoming a probability.

For one thing, researchers are exploring ways of communicating directly to people’s brains with electronic devices, while others are seeking ways to receive messages directly from people’s brains with electronic devices. These efforts might seem wasted, their goals impossible, but they are attempting to achieve positive results. In fact, with the miniaturization of electronics, it is possible to implant a tiny receiver in a person’s ear and transmit to it, much as you might place a call to a cellular telephone.

There’s more, and it is frightening.

Ever since that tragic September morning in 2001, we have seen our personal liberties stripped away, one seemingly insignificant bit at a time. Elderly ladies are searched before boarding an airline flight, children’s toys are ripped apart or confiscated, and we are not allowed to carry bottled water or fingernail clippers past the boarding gate. We are not even allowed to lock our checked-in luggage, since that would stop strangers from opening up our suitcases to look inside. We are required to obtain passports to visit our neighboring countries, whereas in the past all we needed to cross into Mexico or Canada was a driver’s license or non-driver ID. Oh, yes, you can still enter Mexico without a passport, but you can not get back into the United States without one. And did you know that all the new passports contain tracking devices that enable the authorities to know exactly where you are? Is Big Brother watching you?

I’m scaring myself, so I’ll stop here.

~~ Tessa B. Dick

Author: Tessa B. Dick
Learn more about my husband Philip K. Dick at my blog: http://tessadick.blogspot.com/

Conditions on the water can change in the time it takes you to bait your hook. One minute the seas are calm, the next a 40 mph wind is blowing buckets of rain into your face. Fish are affected by the surface weather, too. Many feed off insects that land on the water. Changes in temperature, rainfall and other weather factors influence their behavior.

The best way to stay safe and optimize your odds for a good catch is to carry good weather gear with you. That’s as true standing on the shore as it is cruising on a boat. You need to know when to take shelter and it helps to know why the fish aren’t biting.

Good weather instruments will provide a big assist in solving those problems.

There are a variety of tools the smart fisherman can take advantage of, including an anemometer. These hand-held units measure current wind speed and direction, maximum wind gusts and calculate an average for you. All those pieces of information are useful and it helps to have a unit that can store the values so you can cycle through them.

A barometric gauge measures air pressure. At home, that’s usually no more than an interesting factoid. TV weathermen rarely even bother to report it anymore. But on the water that little piece of information can be a lifesaver. As pressure drops worsening weather is often not far behind. Air pressure is closely associated with changes in temperature, the chances of rain in the near future and other vital facts. Having a way to measure the current air pressure and the trend can be very useful for safe fishing.

The temperature, of course, interests everybody. It affects how we dress, where we’ll steer the boat and the odds of that big trout you’ve been chasing coming out to play or not. It also affects the odds of rain in the offing and other weather phenomenon. An accurate gauge that tells both the cabin and outdoor temperatures is even more useful on the water than at home.

Weather instruments today often integrate all these features. There are units that will provide digital readouts for indoor and outdoor temperature, display air speed, direction, and pressure and even measure the amount of rainfall received over a period of time. They can include sunrise and sunset times, phases of the moon and storm alerts, too.

But the models used at home typically won’t stand up to conditions encountered outdoors and on the open water. Specially designed units are required that are waterproof, corrosion resistant and provide sensors that are nearly indestructible. It’s one thing to hang an outdoor temperature radio-transmitter on a covered front porch. It’s quite another to stick it on an antenna on a boat that will do over 30 knots in heavy waves in a storm.

Equip your pockets and/or your fishing boat with good weather instruments and you’ll optimize your fishing experience. Don’t be caught in the rain without them.

So far we’ve briefly had a look at the core arguments put forward by the Alarmists - whose who support the theory of man-made global warming - and the Realists - those who, at the moment, don’t. However in Australia much of the support for the Alarmists’ point of view is based on distorted information, untruths and naked lies.

Australia at the mercy of Mother Nature

Of all the countries in the western world, Australia is the one that suffers most from the vagaries of the weather. Somewhere, at some time, part of the country is experiencing drought. Never, though, is the whole of country so affected at any one time. At the moment large parts of inland Australia on the Pacific side of the country are experiencing this problem whilst other areas are enjoying more favorable conditions.

Some people believe the present drought is the worst ever - it may be the worst in living memory, but it’s not the worst since European civilization started in 1788. The drought of 1895 to 1903 is considered to be the one that caused the most damage to the economy and life in general.

The Australian farming community accept drought as a fact of life. Since the 1860s when accurate statistics were first started to be used there has been 9 periods of major drought, excluding the current situation. In addition there has been 6 droughts of lesser intensity during this period.

During the periods of pre-European settlement, that is pre-1788, droughts were just as common. Examination of rings on trees and coral support this view. In fact evidence from coral taken off the Barrier Reef in north Queensland indicate a 20 year drought in that area from 1660 to 1680.

Drought is a constant part of Australian life

However, in spite of the overwhelming evidence that droughts are a regular feature of Australian life, the media still insists that the present drought is caused by global warming. Even the saner and more responsible parts of the press push the issue that Australia’s current predicament is being exacerbated by the government’s late signing of the Kyoto agreement.

Again more unsubstantiated nonsense from the people who are happiest when they’re dispelling doom and gloom.

Droughts in Australia are caused by the activity of the El Nino Southern Oscillation - ELSO - a complex weather pattern that influences climatic conditions throughout the Pacific region. This phenomenon only became apparent in the late 70s and although much more work needs to be done to understand its complexity, weather scientist are now able to determine the coming of droughts to Australia fairly accurately.

The average person is being duped

However, the average man in the street attributes changes in climatic conditions in Australia to the theory of global warming, rather than the more likely affect of the ELSO. Aided by the media who attribute every unusual circumstance to world-wide global warming, from the increase in bush-fires to the desalination problems of the River Murray to the decline in coral growth on the Great Barrier Reef, the public blindly follow what they’ve been told.

So successful are the Alarmists in Australia that 2 out of 3 people writing letters to the press and web sites support the concept of man-made global warming. In actual fact, Australia’s last Federal election, in November 2007, was won by the party most vigorous in supporting this theory. A gullible public were frightened into voting for a party that claimed to be able to play God.

As an indication of the untruths and down right lies coming from the Australian Alarmist camp, consider this gem - possibly taken from the Joseph Goebbels propaganda manual ‘How to Deceive the Public and get away with it’:

…but in 2007 our Prime Minister still finds it hard to accept the possible existence of a human driven climate change. - taken from home.iprimus.com.au/foo7/droughthistory.html

So what this web site is saying is that the drought of 1895 to 1903 was caused by man’s industrial activity.

Quite plain and simple, it’s a gross lie. Unfortunately many believe it.

This is the fifth part of an attempt to put some balance into the ongoing international controversy that is the theory of man-made climate change.

Like most people, the author takes a keen interest in the world-wide controversy of climate change and global warming, and the alleged effect this will have on life on earth. He also takes an interest in more mundane issues such as how to lose weight and the increasing popularity of satellite TV.

Making money is a type of obsession that most of us in the recent times have imbibed in ourselves in order to be richer and live our life in a luxurious way. Creating massive wealth can be challenging and at the same time satisfying and enjoyable. Different techniques and tricks have been employed to create massive wealth by different individuals at different point in time.

Some may be legitimate while others may be illegal. The power of creating massive wealth is within you that no one can teach or give lessons. Only guidance can be given to you to create massive wealth, the rest has to be done by your own using your determination, sincerity and credibility.

Many individuals look to devise new ways and techniques to create massive wealth, however, in doing so, they forget the basic truth which is the power to create massive wealth begins with your own attitude and approach towards life. The most important factor that sometimes we may ignore to create massive wealth is the motivation which in itself can be an inspiring factor to achieve your dreams. Before we try to create wealth we must be able to work at our highest efficiencies most of the times. While the motivation factor for each individual is different and diverse, the end result is unanimous and that is financial stability and security for those who take action.

Motivation provides you with the necessary energy and vigor that facilitates you to implement and execute your plan and strategies to create massive wealth. You need to make a list of goals you want to accomplish in your life and at the same time you need to be focused on achieving those goals and objectives that you have already set. Self-improvement always plays a pivotal role to create massive wealth. In order to create massive wealth most individuals will have to change their attitude and thinking towards life. Time management for example, is a key element to enhance your overall prospects in life of getting rich and for this time management skills should be acquired. Self-improvement and self assessment will enable you to identify the skills and talents you need to achieve success at your objectives and goals.

So we see that creating massive wealth may seem a very enjoyable and interesting phenomenon, however, to achieve it is that much difficult and requires a lot of focus, motivation and sincerity.

Rich Ramalho is a growth oriented home business entrepreneur. His goal is to partner with entrepreneurs who have the desire to earn five figures a month running their own online business. Visit his website by clicking here now: ==> http://www.richramalho.tv

The AMC Gremlin, quite a collectible as far as automobiles go, is quickly becoming scarce in number. It was designed by the late Richard Teague and was first displayed at the New York International Auto Show in April, 1968; the AMC Gremlin was the first American subcompact car on sale, (being a vehicle class smaller than a compact car and larger than an urban car.)

Debuting for the princely sum of $1879, the original model came with 2 or 4 seats and a choice of a 128 or 145 horsepower motor. It was manufactured by the smallest of the U.S.’s auto companies and being aimed as a competitor to the Volkswagon bug, the Gremlin had a very ambitious genesis.

Shapewise, the Gremlin was quite unusual to look at and it was devised by modifying the AMC Javelin, a former model. Essentially the back section of the Javelin was cut off to produce the Gremlin’s unique form; “What happened to the rest of your car?” and other quips were common in regards to the car’s strange appearance.

With over 670,000 units being sold, the AMC Gremlin attained a remarkable popularity considering its particular oddities. Nine models were made between the years 1970 - 1978 and much remodelling and modernizing occurred over this time period.

A fascinating piece of information about the Gremlin was the tests conducted by Universities in the early 1970’s to run it with alternative fuel sources such as natural gas, hydrogen and even electric power; a forerunner of things to come.

With 28 to 30 miles per gallon, the Gremlin wasn’t the most economical car in its class, yet its small six-cylinder engine did produce an impressive power ratio, once clocked as going from zero to 60 mph in just 11.9 seconds. It was used as a racing car by some drivers and was recorded at traveling as fast as 100 mph at the Daytona Speedway.

When the AMC Gremlin was released, one critic said that it was the “best American buy of the year” which was quite a big rap for such a small performer; being quite sprightly, its appeal was enhanced amongst buyers.

Although the AMC Gremlin may not go down in the books as one of the best performing cars in history, it did inspire and excite many with its unique features. An ‘Open Fire’ Gremlin, ‘Gremlin Grinder’, and ‘Greased Gremlin’ were three models that were released as toys, thus expanding on the models overall popularity and impact; a clear plexiglass Gremlin replica was even constructed at one stage.

From the ‘Concept 1′ and ‘Concept 11′ through to the 1979 Spirit Liftback (the model that eventually replaced the Gremlin), this odd looking car will always be remembered as being an American phenomenon. Retaining a unique place in the annals of American car culture, it is renowned as being a featured car model in the hit T.V. series “The Simpsons”; Marge Simpson was a proud owner of a Gremlin when in high school and a few other characters also drove them.

Whilst the V8 sporty X package is regarded as the most valuable of the Gremlin line, the many models of this charming automobile that were released shall live on in the memories of its numerous fans. Start your motors!

For more articles by the same author, Please visit: http://fatherspirit-mydailybread.blogspot.com/