The Raven Paradox - How Hempel’s Treatise Questioned the Scientific Process of Inductive Reasoning

Wednesday 14 January 2009

THE RAVEN PARADOX - THE FLAWS IN THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD

HEMPEL’S All use reasoning and at some stage, to create hypotheses and design robust experiments. In a beautiful and elegant treatise, the German philosopher Carl G Hempel, in 1965, showed that there were flaws in these long-established processes. His Raven Paradox called into question the established processes of inductive reasoning, generalization and falsifiability

THE INDUCTIVE HYPOTHESIS Imagine that a scientist, after years of going for long walks in the countryside, observes that every single raven he has ever seen is black. As a dutiful researcher, he uses inductive reasoning to postulate the hypothesis:

“All ravens are black.”

This is a perfectly acceptable conditional hypothesis. , it is testable, because you could sample raven populations and verify that they are all black. The statement is also falsifiable because even one non-black raven amongst the sampled would disprove the hypothesis.

This is all great science, so far, following the established methods of inductive reasoning. The researcher could even design an experiment to sample raven populations, with thousands of ravens observed. If they are all black, the hypothesis is supported and plausible. Over time, repeated experiments and observations further confirm this and the hypothesis becomes accepted as a law.

THE PROBLEM OF GENERALIZATION AND FALSIFIABILITY The first part of the Raven Paradox proposal questions the process of generalization. It is practically impossible to sample every single raven in the world and there may a few non-black individuals. Hempel was not trying to comment upon the exact science, but as an interesting aside, about 1 in 10 000 raven eggs contain partially or fully albino birds.

Most albino birds are more visible to predators, suffer from and may be a localized . The of seeing an albino raven are very small and sightings are extremely rare. A researcher could sample many thousands of Ravens and not see one white bird, even though they do exist.

Thus, the of falsifiability is questioned and undermined by the Raven Paradox. Although the original hypothesis is technically falsifiable, in practical it is very difficult to disprove, because the chances of observing a white Raven are very slim. Even if you sampled the entire known of ravens, there may be an undiscovered group containing a non-black individual.

FLAWS IN THE INDUCTIVE REASONING PROCESS The next part of the Raven Paradox questions the processes of reasoning and deduction that are an integral part of the scientific process. When a researcher states that all ravens are black, the laws of demand that this conditional statement has a contrapositive, statement.

Therefore, according to inductive reasoning, “Everything that is not black is not a raven.” This means that every non-black object observed, that is not a raven, equally strengthens the hypothesis. There are a countless number of non-black objects in the universe and we should pity the poor statistician who has to analyze this!

To take the analogy further, another researcher in another part of world, through fluke, may have only seen one raven in their life, which happened to be white. Their deduced hypothesis may be that “All ravens are white.” Every non-white object, which is not a raven, strengthens this opposing hypothesis too. This is the Raven Paradox.

THE END OF THE SCIENTIFIC PROCESS? What does this paradox mean? Has the world of science come crashing down around our ?

The answer is a resounding NO!

The Raven Paradox is a useful philosophical and helps to ensure that we constantly probe and test the steps of the established scientific processes. The examples given in the paradox are simplistic and unlikely, merely serving as an exercise to test the boundaries of the of science.

In reality, for the vast majority of cases, Hempel’s treatise makes no difference and the normal reasoning and experimental design processes perfectly well. The paradox does not detract from science, but actually enhances it, by preventing from believing that they have proved something beyond .

The Raven Paradox should remind every scientist of the dangers of generalization and that they must ensure that all hypotheses are realistically falsifiable. If the researcher has said, “All ravens in Norway are black”, this is more realistic as ornithologists could feasibly observe every raven in Norway.

PARADIGM SHIFTS Even long-standing theories, which became established as laws and immovable paradigms, can be proved incorrect over time. Science is really all about testing probabilities and . If something has a 99% chance of being correct then it should be accepted as the likely explanation.

The chances of someone seeing only one raven in their life, which happens to be white, are tiny. However, this is not the same as impossible and that possibility must never be ignored. This is why all experiments are rigorously validated and reviewed before gaining widespread acceptance, to minimize the effects of the Raven Paradox.

For example, Newton’s laws were accepted as until Einstein’s theories blew them out of the water. In turn, General Relativity is not the answer to fundamental physics and has been superseded by other theories.

This is how science evolves, by challenging and adapting established paradigms and laws. The creation of Chaos Theory was a perfect example of ‘maverick’ chipping away at the established laws until the theory could no longer be ignored. It eventually burst into the public consciousness and fractal appeared as prints on T-Shirts.

Hempel’s Raven Paradox stands to remind us all that no theory, however established, should be immune to challenge or debate. As new evidence is , science must adapt and change to assimilate the new data.

Martyn lives in the beautiful Peloponnese area of Greece and is absorbing the buried deep within the bones of the land.

He specializes in science and articles.

Please find the at http://www.experiment-resources.com

Martyn’s website is at http://www.amethyst-web.net

Fishing Gear - Weather Instruments For Fishing

Saturday 13 December 2008

Conditions on the water can change in the time it takes you to bait your hook. One minute the seas are calm, the next a 40 mph wind is blowing buckets of rain into your . Fish are affected by the surface , too. Many feed off insects that land on the water. Changes in temperature, rainfall and other factors influence their behavior.

The best way to stay safe and optimize your for a good catch is to carry good gear with you. That’s as true standing on the shore as it is cruising on a boat. You need to know when to take shelter and it helps to know why the fish aren’t biting.

Good instruments will provide a big assist in solving those problems.

There are a of tools the smart fisherman can take of, including an anemometer. These hand-held units measure wind speed and direction, maximum wind gusts and calculate an average for you. All those pieces of information are useful and it helps to have a unit that can store the values so you can cycle through them.

A barometric gauge . At , that’s usually no more than an interesting factoid. TV weathermen rarely even bother to report it anymore. But on the water that little piece of information can be a lifesaver. As pressure drops worsening is often not far behind. is closely associated with changes in temperature, the chances of rain in the near future and other vital facts. Having a way to measure the and the can be very useful for safe fishing.

The temperature, of course, interests everybody. It affects how we dress, where we’ll steer the boat and the of that big trout you’ve been chasing coming out to play or not. It also affects the of rain in the offing and other . An accurate gauge that tells both the cabin and outdoor temperatures is even more useful on the water than at .

instruments today often integrate all these features. There are units that will provide digital readouts for indoor and outdoor temperature, display air speed, direction, and pressure and even measure the amount of rainfall received over a . They can include sunrise and sunset times, phases of the moon and storm alerts, too.

But the used at typically won’t stand up to conditions encountered outdoors and on the open water. Specially designed units are required that are waterproof, corrosion resistant and provide sensors that are nearly indestructible. It’s one thing to hang an outdoor temperature radio-transmitter on a covered front porch. It’s quite another to stick it on an antenna on a boat that will do over 30 knots in heavy in a storm.

Equip your pockets and/or your fishing boat with good instruments and you’ll optimize your fishing experience. Don’t be caught in the rain without them.

Forex Trading Strategies - A Timeless Strategy For Big Gains in 30 Minutes a Day

Thursday 27 November 2008

Here we are going to look at one of the strategies which you can use to make big . This forex is simple to understand, works, will continue to and finally and best of all, it can make you triple digit gains in less than 30 minutes a day…

Many traders want to buy a forex system and end up buying useless automated for forex systems which are simply back tested - in simple that means made up, knowing the closing prices. Well that’s not hard not knowing of course is and is the challenge of forex .

Now, many traders think building a system is hard but its not anyone can do it and it also doesn’t have to be complicated as simple systems best and always have.

The salient points of a simple robust system are enclosed.

The forex which is easy to understand is breakout .

Breakouts

Fact: Most new trends start from new highs or and if you go with them, you can get in on all the major trends and pile up big gains.

Not all breakouts are the same though and you must make sure the or support has been tested several times, it’s been tested in several different time frames and the considers the level important. If it breaks that means the break will continue.

Most Traders Cant trade Breakouts!

Most traders can’t trade breakouts, because they want to get in at a better price and wait for the pullback but a look at any shows - when a big break occurs the price does NOT pullback.

The who waits continues to wait as the trade sails over the horizon piling up thousands or tens of and their not in!

Going with these breaks is the way to make and shows it works.

Confirmation

breakouts is not predicting, it’s simply reacting to price change and when a breakout occurs, you need to confirm the break and check if price momentum is accelerating - if it is you can enter with the on your side.

For this you need some momentum indicators to confirm the move.

We have discussed these more fully in our other articles but here, we just want to that velocity of price MUST be accelerating, to have the on your side when you execute your signal.

Two great indicators are the and the stochastic so look them up or see our other articles.

Management and the key to Triple Digit Gains…

Placing your stop is easy - behind the breakout point, the hard part is trailing the stop.

If it’s a valid breakout, then you may have a that can last for weeks, months or years and you need to trail your stop far enough back, so you don’t get stopped out of the trade to soon.

The is you need to give the room to breathe, or you will never make the big - accept short term drawdown in open equity and keep your eye on the bigger prize.

A good way to do this is to wait until the trade is underway and trail with the stop behind the 40 day average.

Simple and Effective

The above is not designed for action, it relies on and only picking high valid breakouts and you will probably get a few each month.

The system is timeless and any chart will show you breakout works and with a simple such as the above, you could soon be making triple digit gains.

It’s also easy to understand which means you will have in it and be able to follow it with . In forex , and a simple robust method equals .

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Forex Trading - This Proven Method Gives You a 90% Chance of Success!

Thursday 20 November 2008

The method is selling option premium on . Option buyers have a 10% , so the option who grants the option has a 90% . Many never consider selling options and this article is all about selling option premium…

So if you can have a 90% chance of selling , why don’t more traders do it?

The answer is - most traders prefer the idea of buying an option with unlimited gains and limited , and a low chance of , to being on the other side of the option which offers a capped small gain and unlimited , with high of .

If you want to be an option you have great - but you must be mindful of the and the way to it is as follows.

- Sell option premium on high up or down against the prevailing

- Spread your across several positions

- Use to your and sell near expiry when time is decay is killing value

Selling option premium is not for traders who are not confident, have a small or don’t like - it’s a for who know what their doing. An option may have 90% of expiring worthless - but that’s at expiry and prices can of course move “in the ” for the buyer in that period, or move against you.

If however, you don’t mind tops and and can calculate over bought and oversold , you are confident in, it’s one of the best ways to make long term. Sure, you have a capped small gain but these mount up over time and can build serious wealth long term.

There are not many opportunities to trade with 90% of - but that’s what selling option premium gives you and for traders who are confident in their timing, the long term are huge.

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Calculating the Probability and Possibility of Success of an Investment

Monday 17 November 2008

The of a specific outcome and presumption that the outcome result is measured in of the is fine providing the are the true .

The are numbers designed to show, what the speculator will receive for his when betting on a certain event. It does not matter whether the event is a horse race, or price on the exchange .

To be guided by formulated by bookmakers is to be guided by their necessity to balance their because of the public weight of invested for a particular result to happen. This is their key to the of the . To presume that formulated this way is a to a winner is a delusion. Only true can do that.

So what are the true as opposed to just created by the /?

Supposing there is a horse in a race which is called Father Xmas, and because it is Xmas time, a of will back it, liking the name. Their will create a demand, and the will shorten. These are not true representing the winning chance of the horse. These are oriented which do not represent the actual of the selection.

So what are the true needed in your corner to point to achieving a good result?

It is the process of weighing up what will not happen rather than what will. Finding out the real form of the selection based on a series of past performances under various conditions and a host of other data will direct us in the . It means engaging serious attention to any minute point and having the ability to go by that.

Applying this to , means that one cannot be constantly under the of how the behaves, but must take the numerous into to form an overall picture.

There are times when support their which might appreciate as a result, but often only for a very . That sort of thing does not necessarily signal to buy that , and does not represent true . However, a temporary following of a can often be productive, and spotting it early can mean getting true in your favour.

Realizing that certain tend to behave differently at holiday times is most important. even tend to behave differently at certain times of the day. Learning to spot this is helpful, and is a plus. The days when certain important data is being released are imperative to .
Also are the days, when important are due to make a speech.

Negative news about the you wish to beat can be positive news for the you are holding.

Looking for the negative points about the you are opposing can be sometimes more productive than looking for the good points about the you are holding.

Ideal conditions are when the positive data lifts your , and the negative data drags down the other at the same time. Now, you are set to fasten your safety belt with great . That is also the time, when the exchange is like any other , only more so. I have often maintained that bookmakers seek to have the in their favour, and I do not know of any poor bookies. It is prudent to always follow their example.

The is very strong and full of players. There is never a shortage of to take out for the well informed, and there is a bottomless black hole for the reckless punters to throw their into, especially the ones with certain systems. I used to know a fellow who rarely wrote letters to his folks, but did send brief telegrams saying system going well please send more .

Remember, that one of the in your favour is to deal with the who are cheaper than the high street . You can on that.

Paul Dubsky is director Exchange Services Ltd. The company is focused on being able to offer really friendly exchange rates - http://www.foreigncurrencyexchangeservices.co.uk

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What is Online Paper Trading?

Saturday 15 November 2008

Online paper occurs when make use of paper credits to engage in live on such as the exchange . These paper credits are mere tokens and are used in place of real to give the a feel on how would be like with real . Many online platforms offer a demo , allowing them to engage in online paper . and gains are negligible given the fact that the credits used for such are merely for purposes.

Yet, the usefulness of online paper is aplenty. and veterans of can greatly from the use of online paper .

Online Paper For Beginners

The fact that such do not require any real means that they would be very much suitable for beginners who are learning the ropes of in a particular instrument. Online paper allows these to familiarize themselves with the various features of the real platform. These include the limit and functions, which are instrumental to a ’s .

It would also allow beginners in the world of to develop healthy habits necessary for in such as finding out more about the factors affecting movements before hitting the “buy” button. This is critical as most tend to have the wrong of treating the Forex like a casino. Yet, in reality, it is these who would often pay dearly as a result of their folly.

Online Paper For Seasoned Traders

For the seasoned , online paper provides a useful avenue to put untried methods to the test. Feel that you have developed a method for greater ? Try it out on a demo .

With paper credits, you only stand to gain as you would be able to evaluate the effectiveness of your from a safe distance, without suffering from horrible should things go awry. The fact is, even professional make use of online paper as a means to refine their strategies and develop skills for greater returns on their .

Bringing The Learning Of Paper To Real

In any case, it is important for one to adopt the right mentality in order to derive the most out of online paper . It simply would not help if you tell yourself that you are only using “false ” which would allow you to take reckless risks when making a decision. The key to is to take calculated risks, not reckless risks.

Online paper allows you to try out strategies which are based on calculated , to enable you to improve the of of the method which you are with. Online paper will take you further if you are willing to put in that added commitment of constantly evaluating your online paper . This would allow you to learn fast, to enable you to develop sophisticated strategies over time without risking your neck.

Online paper provides a useful for . Be it the or seasoned , the ability to make good use of online paper as a learning would definitely guarantee you and high returns in your .

John Callingham is an authority on Forex , providing valuable on how you can learn about forex currency trading. Click Here to gain FREE access to his Forex secrets when you sign up for his Forex newsletter.

Automated Forex Robots - 2 Reasons You Are Likely to Lose Your Equity and Wipe Out Your Account

Wednesday 12 November 2008

Most stand no chance of going you gains but even the few that could help traders win fail to do so. If you are thinking of buying a forex then you should think very carefully…

Here are the two reasons that lead to equity wipe out.

1. Trusting a Back Tested to Repeat Itself

Look at any sold heavily online and what do you see? - A track record that looks to good to be true and what? - It is! It’s not a real one, it’s a and you will see this written all over the track record.

This simply means the vendor has made up the track record having all the closing prices to hand and of course this is so easy a child could do it and produce huge gains. , , you don’t get advance warning of the price in the and you have to trade not knowing what happened and this is the challenge of forex !

however don’t stop to think that these track records are NO indication at all, of the system works in and then are surprised when their $100 , destroys their and they end up with a wipe out.

Any Forex system which has a simulated track record should be avoided at all costs, as the are you will get wiped out by these so called which are anything but.

2. Through Losing

There are a few systems around that can make great gains but traders still manage to lose with them - why?

Because they lack and cannot keep executing their through of and losing is part of winning in forex .

Today, there is a big industry online that tells you draw down’s don’t occur, or can be 1 or 2 - but this is fantasy land not reality. Even the best ’s weeks of and you will to, this doesn’t mean you can’t win but you MUST stay on course until you hot again.

To stay on course with your Forex system you must take the trouble to learn how and why it works, so you have in it, to follow it with .

If you can’t follow a system with - you don’t have one, it’s as simple as that.

Making Big Gains

Most will wipe out your equity - but if you find an good one, it can lead you to triple digit long term gains but you have to learn to lose to win - do that and you can enjoy .

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A Millionaire’s Secret

Friday 7 November 2008

It is hard to become a . This is especially true if you do it the hard way by starting at zero. There are a few secrets about how to get there that you need to know.

The first big secret, although it is not that big of a secret, is that you are going to have to go out there and take some kind of jump to do it. I was tempted to say , but that is not quite the right term. Taking a has . You never know exactly how long you are going to have that and no is safe.

Having a alone is not going to cut it. There are those that will get you there there, but they are , who bill out at $250 per hour and brokers who do $10M deals. These are the . The rest of us need another way.

We all know someone who has been laid off. I live in Houston and can remember when Enron went under. There were a of smart who had nothing to do with the scandal there. There were programmers, office assistants, IT , and who thought they were on a good place. All of a sudden they saw their accounts go to nothing and were looking for . This was the big one that caught headlines. How many other cases where a series of dried up all the of a company that had been in for 50 years? How many times was a new executive get hired that made some ill-calculated that cost millions of dollars where the company responses eventually lead to a “reduction in force”?

You need a , but never become comfortable with the idea that this is what is going to carry you over to a threshold. Even if you worked your life there and put in you maximum amount into your 401K, you are still not looking at status until many years down the road. What will be the value of a then? Relying on savings and 401K also means you have to survive the inevitable corrections. Nothing is more discouraging than to see eight years of savings vanish because of “irrational ” in the .

All that being the case, you need to take some type of action to ensure your own security. The big question becomes what should that jump be and can you actually do it? Eventually you need to put down the copies of the “how to get rich” and spend your time putting the plan into action.

For those who know what the path is, it good for you. It is now time to start working. Others have a few ideas and probably more questions about the of our ideas than facts. For these , the best course of action is to take the smallest and least components you can and start there.

A good example of low item to do - take you existing house, move out and lease it. This is more and hours on your part, but it takes on less . are if you bought a house, you have lived there for a couple of years. The value is higher than what you paid and the note is at a lower amount than what you can get if you were to get a note for an property on the open right now. Another way of saying all this, the cheapest way of buying a house is to get it for yourself.

Finding another house and packing up the kids is no treat, but you now can now start building equity in two places and earning some on the side. When the values go up, and they will, you gain twice as much as before. I have done this rotation several times and a significant piece of my wealth comes from this. Most have a significant amount of their wealth tied up in their houses. Why not take of that to its fullest.

One can only add additional rentals every few years. The in-between times are spent saving enough for the next down payment. In other words, there is time on your hands where you can do more. It is not just about doing one thing. To , we have to constantly look for . If we get involved in something that becomes a effort, by all means we should all of our energy there. But for the new , some experimentation is most likely needed to find your true making calling.

Take inventory about what you are truly gifted at. Do you mind going up to complete strangers in book stores and and engaging them in meaningful conversations? If yes, you need to be in a multi-level- . I cannot do that and do not want to do that so I have to look elsewhere. I only found this out after failing at a multi-level-. Do you have a specific interest in something and enjoy down suppliers of that? If yes, then consider opening an online store or finding an online channel to sell through.

I have always been a big sports fan. I even went through a period where a friend and I traveled a few parts of the to visit some of the baseball stadiums. I really enjoy learning about the park and some of the nuanced of the . One of the businesses I got into was buying and selling baseball tickets. This lead to buying and selling tickets to other sporting and concert events. This very quickly became a lucrative for me. I now hire other to take care of certain aspects of the . Not only am I making from doing it, I turned it into another by teaching how to do it.

The ticket-selling was not the first or only other I had started. Many others flat out did not or I interest. The fact I interest proved to me that it was a not a good choice to begin with. When I did have interest in the , sometimes not matter how much interest you have, if there is not a , you cannot do anything about it. Buying and selling tickets solved both of these for me.

For me it was buying and selling tickets, for someone else it could be hair care products of children’s toys. The point it is to find an interest you have and the ways to formulate a plan around it.

Start small. Keep the risks to a minimum and most important of all do something.

Greg Cox is a classic . He has combined some , street smarts and some hard to build several successful companies. One of his companies is a ticket brokering company. He also teaches other how to be ticket brokers and provides them with the tools they need to succeed. Learn more about the at http://www.MyTicketBiz.com

Dynamic Traders

Thursday 30 October 2008

What makes a dynamic ?

Dynamic traders can emotionally detach themselves from the . An emotional resilience is undoubtedly the biggest when the . The consist of and also over 90% of losing traders (mainly as a result of and lack of ). Detaching from is 75% towards a successful dynamic and many think this is easy to do but let me tell you it is not. This part of a traders will really test their resolve and will no take a while to learn and overcome. A never really becomes 100% emotionless from all of the time but can learn to trade with which methodically removes a of greed and .

In addition a constant to improve is essential. Dynamic traders - as the name suggests - cannot remain static and need to be able to adapt to the ever changing conditions.

The dynamic does not look to chase or incorporate heavy risks into but uses a structured rule based form of which involves and with a degree of creativity which I have demonstrated on my live one to one .

Dynamic traders look for high set with the stacked in their favour as opposed to trade and pray. Many traders hold on to losing positions and pray that price goes back in the direction they are in. This is a recipe for and dynamic traders always cut their quickly giving them the ability to trade another day.

A traders approach is very important which is why should to become dynamic traders.

FX Analyst

Javid Shaik

FREE daily analysis at http://www.fxcps.com

3 Advantages of Auto Forex Trading

Thursday 30 October 2008

Auto forex is becoming a growing fixture in the forex . It was recently estimated that approximately 25% of all traders are currently auto forex . This is up from the 18% who were using it just three years ago. At this point in 2008, the is so advanced and its signal generators are so precise that it’s getting to the point where you need to be auto forex just to stay on top of the and to keep competitive. It’s clear to see why more traders are using than ever. Consider these three advantages.

24/7 - Unless you’re employing someone else to watch over your campaign for you, are you’re not to your fullest. As the forex is open every hour during the week and extends deep into the weekend, the times when the greatest opportunities occur are endless. Even if you are employing someone to run your campaign when you aren’t there to do it yourself, you could have the same effect for a fraction of the cost. always in your and works tirelessly to profit you best no matter the hour, and you get this all for the one time price of when you make your purchase. It’s a nice feeling knowing that your is in at all times.

/Take Profit - Your always in your and monitors the accordingly. If there is ever a sudden change in your area of the and you stand to lose and consequently , the program snaps into action and away, minimizing your . makes sure that you are on the winning side of a trade near 100% of the time and with constant free updates from their publishers these programs continue to get better and better.

Signal Generators - Signal generators are the premier way to trade with . This is where the real is made, so wouldn’t you want the best information affecting your ? The generator gets this information from constantly analyzing the at all times, noting trends and changes, and combines all of this and uses preprogrammed mathematical to trade accordingly. Again, the constant free updates keep these programs fresh and up to date so you always know you’re getting the best predictions possible. Why settle for less?

If you’re interested in starting down your road to independence, visit http://www.forexautotradingreviewed.com for reviews on the most accurate and leading available on the today.