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THE RAVEN PARADOX - THE FLAWS IN THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD

HEMPEL’S LOGIC All scientists use reasoning and logic at some stage, to create hypotheses and design robust experiments. In a beautiful and elegant treatise, the German philosopher Carl G Hempel, in 1965, showed that there were flaws in these long-established processes. His Raven Paradox called into question the established processes of inductive reasoning, generalization and falsifiability

THE INDUCTIVE HYPOTHESIS Imagine that a scientist, after years of going for long walks in the countryside, observes that every single raven he has ever seen is black. As a dutiful researcher, he uses inductive reasoning to postulate the hypothesis:

“All ravens are black.”

This is a perfectly acceptable conditional hypothesis. Firstly, it is testable, because you could sample raven populations and verify that they are all black. The statement is also falsifiable because even one non-black raven amongst the sampled population would disprove the hypothesis.

This is all great science, so far, following the established methods of inductive reasoning. The researcher could even design an experiment to sample raven populations, with thousands of ravens observed. If they are all black, the hypothesis is supported and plausible. Over time, repeated experiments and observations further confirm this and the hypothesis becomes accepted as a law.

THE PROBLEM OF GENERALIZATION AND FALSIFIABILITY The first part of the Raven Paradox proposal questions the process of generalization. It is practically impossible to sample every single raven in the world and there may a few non-black individuals. Hempel was not trying to comment upon the exact science, but as an interesting aside, about 1 in 10 000 raven eggs contain partially or fully albino birds.

Most albino birds are more visible to predators, suffer from health problems and may be a localized phenomenon. The odds of seeing an albino raven are very small and sightings are extremely rare. A researcher could sample many thousands of Ravens and not see one white bird, even though they do exist.

Thus, the notion of falsifiability is questioned and undermined by the Raven Paradox. Although the original hypothesis is technically falsifiable, in practical terms it is very difficult to disprove, because the chances of observing a white Raven are very slim. Even if you sampled the entire known population of ravens, there may be an undiscovered group containing a non-black individual.

FLAWS IN THE INDUCTIVE REASONING PROCESS The next part of the Raven Paradox questions the processes of reasoning and deduction that are an integral part of the scientific process. When a researcher states that all ravens are black, the laws of logic demand that this conditional statement has a contrapositive, statement.

Therefore, according to inductive reasoning, “Everything that is not black is not a raven.” This means that every non-black object observed, that is not a raven, equally strengthens the hypothesis. There are a countless number of non-black objects in the universe and we should pity the poor statistician who has to analyze this!

To take the analogy further, another researcher in another part of world, through fluke, may have only seen one raven in their life, which happened to be white. Their deduced hypothesis may be that “All ravens are white.” Every non-white object, which is not a raven, strengthens this opposing hypothesis too. This is the Raven Paradox.

THE END OF THE SCIENTIFIC PROCESS? What does this paradox mean? Has the world of science come crashing down around our ears?

The answer is a resounding NO!

The Raven Paradox is a useful philosophical observation and helps to ensure that we constantly probe and test the steps of the established scientific processes. The examples given in the paradox are simplistic and unlikely, merely serving as an exercise to test the boundaries of the philosophy of science.

In reality, for the vast majority of cases, Hempel’s treatise makes no difference and the normal reasoning and experimental design processes work perfectly well. The paradox does not detract from science, but actually enhances it, by preventing scientists from believing that they have proved something beyond doubt.

The Raven Paradox should remind every scientist of the dangers of generalization and that they must ensure that all hypotheses are realistically falsifiable. If the researcher has said, “All ravens in Norway are black”, this is more realistic as ornithologists could feasibly observe every raven in Norway.

PARADIGM SHIFTS Even long-standing theories, which became established as laws and immovable paradigms, can be proved incorrect over time. Science is really all about testing probabilities and assumption. If something has a 99% chance of being correct then it should be accepted as the likely explanation.

The chances of someone seeing only one raven in their life, which happens to be white, are tiny. However, this is not the same as impossible and that possibility must never be ignored. This is why all experiments are rigorously validated and reviewed before gaining widespread acceptance, to minimize the effects of the Raven Paradox.

For example, Newton’s laws were accepted as truth until Einstein’s theories blew them out of the water. In turn, General Relativity is not the answer to fundamental physics and has been superseded by other theories.

This is how science evolves, by challenging and adapting established paradigms and laws. The creation of Chaos Theory was a perfect example of ‘maverick’ scientists chipping away at the established laws until the theory could no longer be ignored. It eventually burst into the public consciousness and fractal models appeared as prints on T-Shirts.

Hempel’s Raven Paradox stands to remind us all that no theory, however established, should be immune to challenge or debate. As new evidence is uncovered, science must adapt and change to assimilate the new data.

Martyn lives in the beautiful Peloponnese area of Greece and is absorbing the philosophy buried deep within the bones of the land.

He specializes in science and philosophy articles.

Please find the original article at http://www.experiment-resources.com

Martyn’s website is at http://www.amethyst-web.net

Conditions on the water can change in the time it takes you to bait your hook. One minute the seas are calm, the next a 40 mph wind is blowing buckets of rain into your face. Fish are affected by the surface weather, too. Many feed off insects that land on the water. Changes in temperature, rainfall and other weather factors influence their behavior.

The best way to stay safe and optimize your odds for a good catch is to carry good weather gear with you. That’s as true standing on the shore as it is cruising on a boat. You need to know when to take shelter and it helps to know why the fish aren’t biting.

Good weather instruments will provide a big assist in solving those problems.

There are a variety of tools the smart fisherman can take advantage of, including an anemometer. These hand-held units measure current wind speed and direction, maximum wind gusts and calculate an average for you. All those pieces of information are useful and it helps to have a unit that can store the values so you can cycle through them.

A barometric gauge measures air pressure. At home, that’s usually no more than an interesting factoid. TV weathermen rarely even bother to report it anymore. But on the water that little piece of information can be a lifesaver. As pressure drops worsening weather is often not far behind. Air pressure is closely associated with changes in temperature, the chances of rain in the near future and other vital facts. Having a way to measure the current air pressure and the trend can be very useful for safe fishing.

The temperature, of course, interests everybody. It affects how we dress, where we’ll steer the boat and the odds of that big trout you’ve been chasing coming out to play or not. It also affects the odds of rain in the offing and other weather phenomenon. An accurate gauge that tells both the cabin and outdoor temperatures is even more useful on the water than at home.

Weather instruments today often integrate all these features. There are units that will provide digital readouts for indoor and outdoor temperature, display air speed, direction, and pressure and even measure the amount of rainfall received over a period of time. They can include sunrise and sunset times, phases of the moon and storm alerts, too.

But the models used at home typically won’t stand up to conditions encountered outdoors and on the open water. Specially designed units are required that are waterproof, corrosion resistant and provide sensors that are nearly indestructible. It’s one thing to hang an outdoor temperature radio-transmitter on a covered front porch. It’s quite another to stick it on an antenna on a boat that will do over 30 knots in heavy waves in a storm.

Equip your pockets and/or your fishing boat with good weather instruments and you’ll optimize your fishing experience. Don’t be caught in the rain without them.

Doesn’t every mom think their kid is cute as a button and could be a child super models?

Did you know that a child super model can earn millions of dollars every year? That’s what children of every age are doing by appearing in television commercials and movies.

Could your child be next?

If you are constantly being told how beautiful your baby or child is, perhaps it’s time to talk to an agent about getting started in the profitable business of modeling

Here are 3 Simple Steps to Find a Child Model Agent:

1) Make any size copy of a recent photo of your child. A nice recent 4 x 6 snapshot of your baby/child will do. You don’t need to spend money on professional photos. Child model agents agree that babies and children change too quickly.

On the back, be sure to write your child’s name, birth date, contact number, height, weight, hair color & eye color.

2) Include a short note about your child & what you are interested in pursuing. (modeling, commercials, film, etc.)

3) Then mail out to prospective, licensed agents.

I would also attach a well-written cover letter. For example, tell an interesting or funny story that will make your child stand out.

Agents get hundreds of pictures daily so the competition is fierce…but it’s worth the effort.

Especially if your child is able to pay for her own college tuition being a child super model! Or maybe even a trip to Walt Disney World.

You might also want to use an online modeling website to put your child’s picture and information about modeling interests to get worldwide exposure.

So where do you find a list of licensed agents in your area?

There is a company that has been in business since 1992 and has done all of the hard work for you by compiling a list of licensed modeling agents.

You can buy preprinted mailing lists that are updated daily. Plus, easy to mail peel and stick labels.

For less than you’d pay to go out to dinner, you can help jumpstart your child’s modeling and acting career - right now!

Lists are a very reasonable $16.95 and Peel & Stick labels are $19.95.

If there’s not a list for where you live…there are NO modeling agents in my small town…a list of New York or Los Angeles will work just fine.

They hire child super models from all over the country.

So if you’ve been thinking about getting your child in modeling or acting, now might be the time to give it a try.

It’s a lot of fun and it doesn’t cost you much - except maybe some time.

Unique Ways Your Millionaire Kids Can Make Some Extra Money To Become Self-made, Generous Millionaires…Even While Still in High School!

This year I attended fashion weeks worldwide and what I have noticed is that not only do designers have pressure to create well crafted and visually stimulating collections, they must also find the perfect pair of shoes to compliment each look they send down the catwalk. Everyone knows that a pair of shoes can make or break an outfit. I started asking myself, why do so many designers choose shoes of stature such as, platform, kitten or stiletto heels to grace the feet of their models walking down the runway.

The first recorded use of high heels dates back to the ancient Greek Hellenic period. More current accounts of high-heel use have been documented as early as the 1500s. Male European court officials called courtiers wore high-heels out of necessity to keep their stirrups up, which set a trend in motion that would establish high-heels with lavishness and luxury. Throughout the ages both men and women have used the elevated height of their shoes to distinguish and establish power and authority perhaps the designers of our time are doing the same.

According to the Wikipedia article Stiletto heel, “Stilettos give the optical illusion of a longer, slimmer leg, a smaller foot, and a greater overall height. They also alter the wearer’s posture and gait, flexing the calf muscles, and making the bust and buttocks more prominent. Stiletto heels are particularly associated with the image of the femme fatale. They are often considered to be a seductive item of clothing.”

Designers get only 5 minutes of fame on the runway and they have to do whatever it takes to make their clothing standout, which includes pairing amazing high-heels with even stronger knock-out garments. No one can deny the splendid image of a gorgeous Amazon looking woman strutting her stuff down the runway to unparalleled heights. One time famed actress Marilyn Monroe was quoted saying, “I don’t know who invented high-heels, but all women owe him a lot.”

High-heels may be painful, but their power of persuasion to set a tone for beauty is undeniable.

Anna Rose
Fashion Questions and Answers
http://www.fashionqanda.com
877-STYL-411

You need to have a basic understanding of how an RV refrigerator works.

For starters, keep in mind that your RV refrigerator is different from the one in your house. Your RV refrigerator doesn’t use a compressor or any moving parts for that matter. It works off of the principle of absorption. Instead of applying cold directly the heat is drawn out, or absorbed. The theory is, when there is an absence of heat there is cold. Basically your RV refrigerator uses heat, either from an electric heating element or LP gas flame. The heat starts a chemical reaction and then through evaporation and condensation causes it to cool. It also works off of gravity, freezing the freezer compartment first and then dropping down to the refrigerator compartment.

The RV must be fairly level for the refrigerator to operate properly. Older RV refrigerators required more precise leveling, but even the newer models need to be close to level for optimum performance. Over time a cooling unit operated out of level will be permanently damaged. Traveling with the refrigerator on will not cause problems because the liquids and gases in the cooling unit are constantly moving around. They don’t collect and stay in areas of the cooling unit like they can in a stationary, out of level refrigerator.

RV absorption refrigerators do a great job for RVers.

Happy Camping,

Mark

Copyright 2006 by Mark J. Polk owner of RV Education 101

RV Expert Mark Polk, seen on TV, is the producer & host of America’s most highly regarded series of DVD’s, videos, books, and e-books. http://www.rveducation101.com/

Sign up for your free “RV Education 101″ Newsletter http://rveducation101.com/email/

Online car buying has many advantages over the old fashion way of buying cars. However, the number of disadvantages is just as numerous. Web or the internet is the most useful resource for planning and researching car prices and deals.

From the comfort of your own home, you can compare models and makes and decide what type of a car you want to buy, much before you even go to the dealership.

This is a huge advantage when buying a car, because car dealers will very often try to steer you towards buying a car that they want you to buy instead of the car you want. This can be especially important if you plan on buying a used car, have your mind firmly set and do not rush in to any decisions.

If the used car dealer does not have the car you wanted and you stumble on to a car you did not really want, but it looks like a good deal just go home and think about it and the return tomorrow.

Many people do not like the hassle of regular car buying and for them buying a car on the internet is God given gift. However, internet car shopping makes several very important steps in car buying very hard or even impossible.

It can prove very difficult to inspect the car you are interested in visually, and there is just no way for a test drive. Because of that, it is essential that you buy only from reputable dealers.

Check the internet for forums and groups about cars and ask around, read what other people are saying.

Especially useful information is from the people who have already bought cars online, try to talk with them, compare the car models, dealers and experiences they had.

Main advantages of buying a car online:

1. Choice in makes and model.

2. Choice of color.

3. Easy price comparison.

4. Easy deals comparison.

5. You are not limited to your local dealers.

However, do not forget that even on the web, car dealers are still dealers. Dealing over the webcam does not mean you cannot ask the same questions you would have asked in car dealership.

Ask whatever questions you want, do a thorough research, check for any car weaknesses and ask if there are any on the car you are interested in.

Check if you can return the car, even if the car has already been shipped. In some cases if the car must be returned you could end up paying for transportation costs.

Include this in your car buying calculation, because you could get reluctant returning the car not right for you, damaged or with some other mistakes just because transportation cost.

Thousands of people have already sold and bought cars on the web. If you decide that this is the right way for you to buy a car, be careful, do your research and buy only from the reputable dealers with thousands happy costumers to vouch for them.

http://www.Driver-To-Driver.com is site dedicated to cars, with advice form drivers to drivers.Visit us and learn how to buy a car online, buy or sell a used car, how to find online car sales and many other car things.

The first electric wheelchair was developed in the early 1950’s and by the 1960’s the first mobility scooter was introduced. The popularity of both of these devices quickly grew and today people all over the world use personal mobility vehicles. There are a lot of different models of scooters available today. Often they look completely different, but the all share some similar features and characteristics. By understanding these similarities, you can better understand the different models and make an educated purchasing decision.

Before you begin shopping around for a scooter, it is important to decide where you intend to use the scooter and what you intend to use it for. You should determine if you intend to use it indoors, outdoors, or both.

If you are going to be using it outdoors, then you need to consider the type of terrain you will mostly use it on. It is important to consider whether you will be driving it on ground that is firm and packed or over loose soil and sand. It can help if you make a list of all the areas you regularly go, so that you can determine what types of terrain you will be driving on.

If you are mostly going to be using the scooter indoors, then a three wheeled scooter is often the best choice. Three wheeled scooters are very maneuverable and this makes them great for indoor use.

If you are primarily going to be using the scooter outdoors, then a four wheeled scooter might be a better option. 4 wheeled scooters are not as maneuverable, because they have a larger turning radius, but they offer superior balance. This means they will be more stable over rougher terrain and they also tend to have a higher weight rating.

It is a good idea to consider how often you intend to use the scooter away from home. Most scooters are designed to be taken apart in several pieces, but the individual pieces can be pretty heavy. This means that you will probably need to install a scooter carrier onto your car. There are several types available that can be quickly installed and are cost effective.

While most scooters require a special vehicle lift to be transported, there is one special type of scooter that does not. Travel scooters can be taken apart easily and the pieces of the scooter are light enough that most people do not have problems picking them up and the heaviest piece of the scooter is often only twenty-five pounds. It is easy to place one of these scooters in the trunk of a car or to take it with you on vacation. These types of scooters tend to have fewer features though and they also usually can not support as much weight or travel over as far of distances as other scooters do. Usually for everyday use, most people prefer a traditional scooter, but travel scooters are also very popular.

People who need to be able to travel over rough ground or those that need a higher weight rating often go with a heavy duty scooter. Heavy duty scooters usually support around 500 pounds and are designed with improved suspensions, dent resistant bumpers, and larger wheels. They also sit up higher off of the ground, which also helps to make these scooters the better choice for outdoor use. These scooters are fairly large and have a larger turning radius than other scooter, so they might not be the best choice for indoor use.

Once you have an idea of where you intend to use the scooter, you can narrow the types of scooters available down and find one that will be suited to your needs. The next step is to compare the features, such as the range and top speed, to find one that is able to accommodate you. You should also consider other features like whether it has a lighting package or the type of seat that is used on the scooter.

Brad Brubaker has had experience with many types of mobility aids. An electric mobility scooter is one device that can be used to make getting around easier and increase your overall independence. Travel scooters are one very popular type of scooter that can be easily transported without the need for a vehicle scooter lift. Visit US Medical Supplies to find out more about mobility scooters and other types of home medical equipment.

As of this writing the long rumored Honda Fit Hybrid vehicle seems to still be a myth at best. In truth, there has been no official announcement from Honda. However, it does appear that Honda will be releasing a new hybrid to replace the Insight. Will this be a FIT hybrid? Nobody but Honda really knows for sure. Does it really matter? In my opinion, no. Bottom line is that I believe that Honda will release a respectable replacement for the Insight in the next year or two.

Whether to call it a Fit, Insight or something else really does not matter. This new vehicle will still serve the intended purpose of the model that it is replacing. To me, that is the only really important thing. There was a great buzz going last year about the Fit hybrid being introduced in 2008 or 2009, but that is all it was, buzz. It is very likely that this new hybrid will be priced well below the Civic. This will open up great opportunities for a while new class of consumers that would not normally look at purchasing hybrid technology.

Honda covers the hybrid niche very well. The Insight and the coming replacement compete (and will continue to compete) well against the Toyota Prius. The Civic is a great looking, powerful car that is very affordable to many people that cannot afford the more expensive hybrid models. Last but not least is the Accord hybrid is neck and next with the Toyota Camry, two of the best selling cars around in their standard versions.

Two areas where Honda seems to be lacking is in the availability of a truck or SUV hybrid. I think that the fact that Honda is concentrating on the subcompacts, compacts and full size sedans is a great thing. The advances they have made in technology have been wonderful. Let Honda be the first to have a truly great hybrid lineup first, then go after the smaller other niche markets.

In closing, to those waiting for a Honda Fit Hybrid, do not hold your breath. But all is not lost, there should be a comparable model available real soon now that should more than satisfy your needs.

Adam Taiz writes for http://hybridvehiclesguide.com Read more about other Honda Hybrid Cars including this great Honda Civic Hybrid Review and many more.

The AMC Gremlin, quite a collectible as far as automobiles go, is quickly becoming scarce in number. It was designed by the late Richard Teague and was first displayed at the New York International Auto Show in April, 1968; the AMC Gremlin was the first American subcompact car on sale, (being a vehicle class smaller than a compact car and larger than an urban car.)

Debuting for the princely sum of $1879, the original model came with 2 or 4 seats and a choice of a 128 or 145 horsepower motor. It was manufactured by the smallest of the U.S.’s auto companies and being aimed as a competitor to the Volkswagon bug, the Gremlin had a very ambitious genesis.

Shapewise, the Gremlin was quite unusual to look at and it was devised by modifying the AMC Javelin, a former model. Essentially the back section of the Javelin was cut off to produce the Gremlin’s unique form; “What happened to the rest of your car?” and other quips were common in regards to the car’s strange appearance.

With over 670,000 units being sold, the AMC Gremlin attained a remarkable popularity considering its particular oddities. Nine models were made between the years 1970 - 1978 and much remodelling and modernizing occurred over this time period.

A fascinating piece of information about the Gremlin was the tests conducted by Universities in the early 1970’s to run it with alternative fuel sources such as natural gas, hydrogen and even electric power; a forerunner of things to come.

With 28 to 30 miles per gallon, the Gremlin wasn’t the most economical car in its class, yet its small six-cylinder engine did produce an impressive power ratio, once clocked as going from zero to 60 mph in just 11.9 seconds. It was used as a racing car by some drivers and was recorded at traveling as fast as 100 mph at the Daytona Speedway.

When the AMC Gremlin was released, one critic said that it was the “best American buy of the year” which was quite a big rap for such a small performer; being quite sprightly, its appeal was enhanced amongst buyers.

Although the AMC Gremlin may not go down in the books as one of the best performing cars in history, it did inspire and excite many with its unique features. An ‘Open Fire’ Gremlin, ‘Gremlin Grinder’, and ‘Greased Gremlin’ were three models that were released as toys, thus expanding on the models overall popularity and impact; a clear plexiglass Gremlin replica was even constructed at one stage.

From the ‘Concept 1′ and ‘Concept 11′ through to the 1979 Spirit Liftback (the model that eventually replaced the Gremlin), this odd looking car will always be remembered as being an American phenomenon. Retaining a unique place in the annals of American car culture, it is renowned as being a featured car model in the hit T.V. series “The Simpsons”; Marge Simpson was a proud owner of a Gremlin when in high school and a few other characters also drove them.

Whilst the V8 sporty X package is regarded as the most valuable of the Gremlin line, the many models of this charming automobile that were released shall live on in the memories of its numerous fans. Start your motors!

For more articles by the same author, Please visit: http://fatherspirit-mydailybread.blogspot.com/

The Buick Motor Division of the General Motors Corporation is in transition, much like the rest of the venerable auto company. Old models have been canceled, new models added, and the current line up is radically different from just three years earlier. Now down to five models, the remaining vehicles in the Buick line up are all winners. Let’s take a look at each model and what they have to offer to you, the consumer.

Lucerne - Buick’s Roadmaster and LeSabre are both gone, but the full size Lucerne have taken their place. Featuring V8 power and luxurious appointments such as heated and cooled seats, liquid heated windshield fluid, and leather appointments, the big Lucerne is based on the Cadillac DTS, but the car sells for more than $10,000 less than its up market Caddy cousin.

Lacrosse - This five seat sedan is sleek, aerodynamic, and quiet. With starting prices in the low 20 thousand dollar range, the car competes against the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord.

Rainier - The larger of two Buick SUVs, the Rainier comes standard with a 275hp I6, Stabitrak suspension/steering system, eight way driver powered seats, leather seating, and more.

Rendezvous - As Buick’s first SUV, the Rendezvous has succeeded where its Pontiac cousin, the Aztek, failed. Available in two or four wheel drive, the Rendezvous features seating for five [with available seating for seven], four wheel disc brakes, and a host of sought after outdoorsmen desired accessories.

Terraza - Is it a minivan or is it an SUV? The Terraza is part of a family of GM crossover vehicles introduced in the 2005 model year. This seven passenger vehicle comes equipped with a 3.5L I6 engine and is available in either front wheel drive or all wheel drive. As GM considers getting rid of its aging and unpopular line of minivans, the Terraza and its cousins will likely step in and fill the hole.

General Motors has been fairly silent regarding the future of the Buick division. Some have been concerned by the steady depletion of models while others are seeing Buick make a clean break from its past which has included several uninspiring models such as the Century and the Roadmaster.

In spite of everything, the Buick Enclave, featured at the recently ended Detroit Auto Show received rave reviews. The Enclave is yet another crossover vehicle and it should hit Buick showrooms by 2008.

Clearly, Buick could use a wider variety of vehicles to ensure its long term success. Perhaps the type of success the division had when the Regal was part of the fold would reinstate the division to its past glory, if a car matching the Regal’s caliber was developed.

Matt is a professional writer whose writings appear on a variety of blogs including WordJourney and Matthew Keegan - SEO