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THE RAVEN PARADOX - THE FLAWS IN THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD

HEMPEL’S LOGIC All scientists use reasoning and logic at some stage, to create hypotheses and design robust experiments. In a beautiful and elegant treatise, the German philosopher Carl G Hempel, in 1965, showed that there were flaws in these long-established processes. His Raven Paradox called into question the established processes of inductive reasoning, generalization and falsifiability

THE INDUCTIVE HYPOTHESIS Imagine that a scientist, after years of going for long walks in the countryside, observes that every single raven he has ever seen is black. As a dutiful researcher, he uses inductive reasoning to postulate the hypothesis:

“All ravens are black.”

This is a perfectly acceptable conditional hypothesis. Firstly, it is testable, because you could sample raven populations and verify that they are all black. The statement is also falsifiable because even one non-black raven amongst the sampled population would disprove the hypothesis.

This is all great science, so far, following the established methods of inductive reasoning. The researcher could even design an experiment to sample raven populations, with thousands of ravens observed. If they are all black, the hypothesis is supported and plausible. Over time, repeated experiments and observations further confirm this and the hypothesis becomes accepted as a law.

THE PROBLEM OF GENERALIZATION AND FALSIFIABILITY The first part of the Raven Paradox proposal questions the process of generalization. It is practically impossible to sample every single raven in the world and there may a few non-black individuals. Hempel was not trying to comment upon the exact science, but as an interesting aside, about 1 in 10 000 raven eggs contain partially or fully albino birds.

Most albino birds are more visible to predators, suffer from health problems and may be a localized phenomenon. The odds of seeing an albino raven are very small and sightings are extremely rare. A researcher could sample many thousands of Ravens and not see one white bird, even though they do exist.

Thus, the notion of falsifiability is questioned and undermined by the Raven Paradox. Although the original hypothesis is technically falsifiable, in practical terms it is very difficult to disprove, because the chances of observing a white Raven are very slim. Even if you sampled the entire known population of ravens, there may be an undiscovered group containing a non-black individual.

FLAWS IN THE INDUCTIVE REASONING PROCESS The next part of the Raven Paradox questions the processes of reasoning and deduction that are an integral part of the scientific process. When a researcher states that all ravens are black, the laws of logic demand that this conditional statement has a contrapositive, statement.

Therefore, according to inductive reasoning, “Everything that is not black is not a raven.” This means that every non-black object observed, that is not a raven, equally strengthens the hypothesis. There are a countless number of non-black objects in the universe and we should pity the poor statistician who has to analyze this!

To take the analogy further, another researcher in another part of world, through fluke, may have only seen one raven in their life, which happened to be white. Their deduced hypothesis may be that “All ravens are white.” Every non-white object, which is not a raven, strengthens this opposing hypothesis too. This is the Raven Paradox.

THE END OF THE SCIENTIFIC PROCESS? What does this paradox mean? Has the world of science come crashing down around our ears?

The answer is a resounding NO!

The Raven Paradox is a useful philosophical observation and helps to ensure that we constantly probe and test the steps of the established scientific processes. The examples given in the paradox are simplistic and unlikely, merely serving as an exercise to test the boundaries of the philosophy of science.

In reality, for the vast majority of cases, Hempel’s treatise makes no difference and the normal reasoning and experimental design processes work perfectly well. The paradox does not detract from science, but actually enhances it, by preventing scientists from believing that they have proved something beyond doubt.

The Raven Paradox should remind every scientist of the dangers of generalization and that they must ensure that all hypotheses are realistically falsifiable. If the researcher has said, “All ravens in Norway are black”, this is more realistic as ornithologists could feasibly observe every raven in Norway.

PARADIGM SHIFTS Even long-standing theories, which became established as laws and immovable paradigms, can be proved incorrect over time. Science is really all about testing probabilities and assumption. If something has a 99% chance of being correct then it should be accepted as the likely explanation.

The chances of someone seeing only one raven in their life, which happens to be white, are tiny. However, this is not the same as impossible and that possibility must never be ignored. This is why all experiments are rigorously validated and reviewed before gaining widespread acceptance, to minimize the effects of the Raven Paradox.

For example, Newton’s laws were accepted as truth until Einstein’s theories blew them out of the water. In turn, General Relativity is not the answer to fundamental physics and has been superseded by other theories.

This is how science evolves, by challenging and adapting established paradigms and laws. The creation of Chaos Theory was a perfect example of ‘maverick’ scientists chipping away at the established laws until the theory could no longer be ignored. It eventually burst into the public consciousness and fractal models appeared as prints on T-Shirts.

Hempel’s Raven Paradox stands to remind us all that no theory, however established, should be immune to challenge or debate. As new evidence is uncovered, science must adapt and change to assimilate the new data.

Martyn lives in the beautiful Peloponnese area of Greece and is absorbing the philosophy buried deep within the bones of the land.

He specializes in science and philosophy articles.

Please find the original article at http://www.experiment-resources.com

Martyn’s website is at http://www.amethyst-web.net

Within just a few weeks it will transform your life; No more stress or sleepless nights, you will be happy and life will be fun again.

This is NOT a get rich scheme (SORRY THERE IS NO MAGIC FORMULA).

(STOP NOW- do not use credit to finance your lifestyle, no more loans no more credit cards. (You are going to be a cash only person) stop giving away you hard earn money, once you are clear of debt and turned the corner you can then re-focus on becoming wealthy. The facts are you have NO option you MUST clear your debts, if you fail the consequents are Foreclosure on your home, your car reclaimed by the HP Company, court orders, bankruptcy.)(SORRY but that is the hard truth).

Quote from the course:

Nevertheless, that will NOT happen to you because you are going to implement the recovery plan that we will set out for you.

Are you in Debt? we receive many e-mails asking if an internet, e-commerce business can transform debt into wealth. We cannot promise that, to start any business takes commitment, you must be focused and have a business plan, set key objectives. You also need to have time to develop your new business.

If you are in Debt, you are often under pressure from your creditors, stressed. First consider you priorities:-

- Would you like to pay off your mortgage?
- Would you like to pay off your bank overdraft,loans and credit cards?
- Follow our plan, clear your debts, and become financially independent. (THEN you can move to the next level how to become wealthy).
- You cannot wish to pay off your debts; you need the commitment and the WILL to make it happen, which will require changes to the way you control your money and your spending habits.

Create a new future, turn debt into wealth:

Course content:

1. Step one make the commitment.
2. Actions that will move your bank account into the black.
3. Golden rules to success
4. Review your current financial status.
5. Were you ever taught how control your money?
6. Money makes money, your key objective to get debt free.
7. Why do we fall into the credit card trap?
8. Those cards must go. (High interest crazy)
9. You must operate on a cash only basis. ( you will quickly see the benefits, it is amazing the extra money it creates)
10. HP the monthly payments that cause you worry and stress.
11. Now you have the mind set to pay off ALL your debts.
12. Manage your spending. (Impulse buying will blow your plan right out of the water)
13. Being in debt can be due to bad luck; however, it is far more likely to be our own fault, failing to manage our finance.

The Golden rule, NEVER spend above your means, which includes loans credit cards, over spending on luxuries, cars, holidays, entertainment, drinking, smoking.

Evaluate you current spending habits, YOUR OBJECTIVE to clear all debts, have money in the bank, plan to make money and ensure a new future. Eliminate stress, worry, and depression. Freedom happiness and wealth is NOT just a dream. YOU CAN DO and YOU MUST DO IT. (Develop that mind set believe in yourself, do it for your family and for your well being and health).
We have set the scenario, now we take one-step at a time and make it happen.

Above all, you must be honest, with your personal assessments; you must also be realistic, DO not set impossible goals.

Step one make the commitment

You are about to take the most important step to clearing your debts and achieving personal wealth.

1. I am totally committed to following the advice in this manual, I will make changes in attitude and the way I manage my money, necessary to achieve my main objective build a debt free and wealthy future.

2. In order to plan your systematic recovery and transform debt into wealth we need to put our cards on the table, hide nothing, be honest and complete the following questionnaire.
Please complete the following questionnaire.

It will provide the status of your current financial position. (sorry in this format the table forms do not work, it is better if you are working with the correct forms/ tables ( read on once you are committed to giving it your best shot. you can go to our web page and see the FREE course complete with forms)

No Answer the following questions (Truth only) Yes or No YES NO

1 Do you carry you credit card balance over each month
2 Do you have more than three credit cards that on the upper limit
3 Do you ever use one credit card to pay debts or pay off other cards
4 Do you only pay the minimum payment on credit cards each month,
5 Have you reach your maxim limits on all your cards
6 Are you are struggling to even make the minimum payments
7 Do you have more than 10 years to pay on your mortgage
8 Do you have your car on a finance agreement
9 Have you taken out a second mortgage to pay off debts
10 Are you planning to buy a new car
11 Do you have personal loans, bank over drafts
12 Do you have store cards to purchase goods
13 Are you living beyond your means, struggling every month
14 Have you ever had your services turned off for non payment
15 Is the stress and worry causing health problems
16 Is the debt having an impact on your family relationships
17 Have you tried to find ways of earning more money
18 Are you under extreme pressure from your creditors
19 Are you considering bankruptcy
20 Are you in trouble with the bank or mortgage society

Now we face the decisive moment.

Total all the “YES” numbers

If you scored, 4-0

Not too much to worry about we can soon have you on the way the wealth and happiness.

If you scored, 8-5

You need to review your spending and focus on your options to make money.

If you scored, 13-9

You are managing to pay your way; you earn the money then have to pay it to your creditors (high interest). You need to concentrate on reducing your debts by controlling you excessive spending. Implement our debt payment scheme so you have spare money to invest, use you income and spare money to generate wealth.

If you scored, 17-14

You are on the ragged edge, struggling to pay your way, urgent action is required to stem to flow of outgoing money, consider every penny you spend do you really need to buy new clothes or have that expensive evening out. Focus on channeling the money saved to pay off debits, review the debts that are costing you high interest and pay them off. Once you see the benefits, your recovery will gain momentum.

IF you are 20-18

You are clearly deep in debt, you must be unhappy worried and stressed which will effect your well being and health.

We will help you get back on track, however it will take commitment by you and all the members of your family and you need to cut your spending. Put a plan into place to pay off the most pressing debts. NOW you need the WILL to implement the advice we will give you. (Think new future better life no worries or stress, security) Make this commitment get out of debt, to change your spending habits. This is the hard task. Do that and then you can look forward to a new future?

Learn from my mistakes:

Speaking from experience, I went to university attained a MBA you would think that I have developed the self-control to monitor my spending and invest my money wisely. NO! I did not I was spending more money than I was earning clothes, cars, holidays, living on my credit cards for a few years I had a high old life.

For nearly three years, I continue to impulse buy. Then I started robbing Peter to Pay Paul using one credit card to pay of another, transferring balances, taking out loans. WOW, I had spiraled deep into debt. Under pressure from all the creditors, could not sleep, each month all my salary already committed to creditors, outgoing much higher than my income.

OK it was my fault silly middle class girl who over spent. Why was I such a fool? Well we all want material things. We associate fast cars, designer clothes, with happiness. And fall into the trap of the media and the advertisers, to the offers of credit cards and loans.

I cannot recall any of my family or tutors teaching me the importance of being in control of financial affairs.

Now there are hundreds of ways in which we can fall into debt, I was a miss - guided fool. With many, it is bad luck, ill health, out of work, family problems. They wanted the best for their children.

The objective is to review the status, then formulate a plan transform debt into wealth.

1. Control Spending and credit management.
2. What to do with our salary (Money in / Money out)
3. Make changes, plan a new financial life.
4. Learn how to invest money, or develop a business.
5. Consider the future, pensions and retirement.

First, we will talk about the positive aspects of life and future. We all dream of winning the lottery, becoming millionaires over night. (It will not happen) The fact is if you do spend £10 per week on the lottery or the football pools. That is £520 pounds a year, invested weekly with compounding interest at 8% would provide you a substantial amount of money by the time you are 65 years old - depending on the number of years. On average for most people it would be well over £500,000.
Most of us will earn well over a million pounds in our life time, for example if you earn £30,000 for 40 years that is £1,200,000.

However, the sad fact is most people have no idea how to save or invest money, they give all they earn to banks, credit cards, loans, and high interest is hard-earned money lost forever. (Crazy but true).

If you are living on credit than you are giving away a high percentage of your money, money that, you could be investing and being paid interest.

STOP NOW- do not use credit to finance your lifestyle, no more loans no more credit cards. (You are going to be a cash only person) stop giving away you hard earn money, once you are clear of debt and turned the corner you can then re-focus on becoming wealth.

The facts are you have NO option you MUST clear your debts, if you fail the consequents are Foreclosure on your home, your car reclaimed by the HP Company, court orders, bankruptcy. (SORRY but that is the hard truth).

Nevertheless, that will NOT happen to you because you are going to implement the recovery plan that we will set out for you.

We now need to first motivate you, set key objectives and realistic goals.

We all have different life styles, often based on the salary we earn.

The rule the higher you fly the harder you fall. Applies:

If you live in a large expensive house, you will have much higher mortgage repayments. Top of the range BMW, you impress no one every one knows you are living on credit.
Therefore, before you try to impress with a new swimming pool or ponies and motor bikes for the children, stop and think can we afford to do this, would we be better to wait and pay cash. (Of course you would you know it makes sense).

If you are the average person, living in a three-bed semi, with a second hand car, and are a hourly paid worker, maybe in a factory or in the construction industry, the same philosophy applies. Yes it would be nice to impress your family and friends with a tan from a expensive holiday or a top of the range car, believe me they will only be impressed the first time they see it. You will be the one faced with 3 years of HP repayments, higher insurance, and the cost of fuel.

OK I know what you are thinking every one has a mortgage has credit cards and debits, Stop because you are having negative thoughts, NO it is not OK to be in debt, it complete madness and will never make you happy it will only bring you worry and stress..

Therefore, no matter what your station in life is the same principles will apply.

We are taking time to outline the reasons most of us find ourselves in debt, because if you can not accept there is a problem you cannot take the actions required to eliminate the problem (In this case debt).

We could show many examples of credit cards. They make it so easy, you always spend three times more than, if you were buying cash. Then the situation gets even worst, let us assume you have four credit cards, average interest 16.9% they have a combined outstanding balance of £5,200. If you only pay the minimum monthly payment = to 3% of the outstanding balance it will take you 20 years to pay those cards off and your payment would total £9,720 - work it out you have paid them £4,520 interest.

You know in your heart that you get a much better deal paying cash, often a lower price and you pay NO interest.

OK we never promised a magic over night formula, we did promise the plan that WILL take you from debt to being wealthy.

Key Objectives:

• STOP —using credit NO loans or credit cards, now you are 100% cash. Think before you spend, do not buy until you have spare cash.
• This is NOT an option, if you are at present deep in debt, you will realized, the high life is over. You will be receiving legal letters. If you do not stop using credit, then you will reach a point where that decision will not be yours. Because once you are exceeding the limit on your cards and fail to make the payments, the credit card companies will put you on stop, and immediately inform the credit agencies. Then you are really in trouble, all the other loan companies credit cards will follow suit quickly. Your bank will also withdraw your over draft facility and monitor you account as high risk.
• Cut up those credit cards. Use only cash, and only when you have spare cash, you need every penny to pay off your debts. You must learn to live a cash based life style.
• Pay off ALL your debts including mortgage, ( we will tell you how to do that in the shortest possible time)
• Learn to invest ALL spare money wisely, your main objective will be to generate wealth,
• Phase 1 set aside money in your emergency saving fund.
• Phase 2 Focus on building long-term retirement wealth, we will guide you to save investment that will generate income without the need for you to work. (You will have financial freedom) Enjoy life travel, play golf, go fishing. Have fun been happy.
• Now in the first few years you are going to throttle back, drop out of the fast lane, no more living on credit and accumulating debts that will eventually bring you crashing down, maybe cost you every thing house, car, family. (That would be devastating)
• Work hard for real freedom and independence; soon you will be the one being in charge in complete control of your own destiny.
• Simple rules, cash only, no loans, no more monthly HP agreements.
• Your family and children will need to understand that from now on all spare money will go to pay off debts. ( Hard to say no to a tearful little girl who wants a new play station game) Still a lot better than telling a teenage daughter, we are going to lose the house because we have not paid the mortgage.
• OK this is not rocket science; it is just plain common sense. You can dream and it is important to have the vision that in 5 years you can be completely debt Free.

The plan:

Prioritize your debts, (we will provide the formula).

List All your creditors ( Debt is money you owe and are legally committed to repay) (Expenses = Money you pay out each month for Gas, Electricity, food, petrol, take items that you pay every year for example car insurance, and divide by 12).

First, clearly understand how much you actually owe, what rate of interest you are paying.
Complete the following work sheets designed to help you and your family to understand where the money going. Invite innovated think and ideas as to how you could save money.

(A) Monthly Living Expenses

Living Expenses Actually cost Saving

Rent
Council Charges
Electricity -
Gas
Telephone / internet
Water Rates
TV company ( Sky)
Food (total for every thing)
Entertainment.
Children Pocket money
Car expenses
Car 1 petrol (only)
Car 2 petrol (only)
Maintenance
Road fund Tax
Insurances
Home insurances
Medical Care
Children’s Education Expenses Books Tuition etc
Clothing and Miscellaneous
Other expense

Total

(B) Major Purchases - over 12 months divided by 12

Holidays
Car purchase
Major House improvements
New Furniture
New Kitchen equipment
Garden plants tools
Gym or Golf club fees
Season tickets
Recreation expenses
Miscellaneous expenses
Cash spent ATM etc
Total C/f to summary

(C) Debt payments

Name of Debt Total

Balance Monthly Payment % interest Full amount or min

Mortgage
Second Mortgage
Car Loan 1
Car loan 2
Bank Loan
Over draft
Credit Card 1
Credit Card 2
Credit Card 3
Credit Card 4
Other debts

Total C/f to Summary
(D) Monthly Income
Monthly take home salary
Second income
Benefits DHSS
Pensions
Part time job
Internet income

Total C/F to Summary

Totals carry forward

Personal Financial Statement - SUMMARY the points of reckoning, you now need to insert you figures.

E.g., total income - total Living expenses- total debt payments.

Which we hope will give you a positive result, e.g. more income than outgoings? Referred to as disposable income a true measure of your current capacity to decrease you debts and increase your wealth. Taking these initial steps should have provided you with the base information to empower you and your family to focus your efforts and give you the means to measure your progress.

It is important that you share this information with your family.

Depending on the result of Income (- outgoings) your objective will be to ensure that you have a minimum of 10% of your total income as disposable income, that is the money you are going to use to clear your debts in order of priority.

It will depend on your original check on status if you were in the 18-20 range then the figures may indicate that you have debts and expenses that exceed you present income.

If this is the case, you have NO option: You must cut your spending. All luxuries, none essential expenditure, holidays, two cars, smoking, drinking, golf club, gym, entertaining, clothes, furniture, children games, garden plants flowers. In place of golf the gym going to the pub, find spare time work earn more money.

If you DO NOT TAKE THESE ACTIONS NOW, you WILL lose your home, you will face bankruptcy. This is the hard line truth.

Total income
Total Living Expenses=
Debt Payments
D - Total of AB&C =
Disposable Income

Right now your head will be spinning, you were expecting an easy way out, there is no easy way out it takes total commitment.

We did warn you TOTAL commitment.
NO MORE CREDIT CARD spending
NO MORE LOANS
NO MORE impulse spending
NO MORE Holidays (Until you are clear of debt)

You are now on the road to recovery, you are going to transform you debt into wealth.
You first step was to create disposable income = Income minus outgoings.

Your starting point should be 10% your monthly gross income.

Write down each debt in the first column 1, total balance in column 2 the minimum payment in column 3, then you divide the total balance by the monthly payment, insert the answer in column 4.

Next, you need to prioritize your debts in column 5 Start with the lowest division answer in column 4 until they are numbered.

Column 6 that is where you start to see the benefit, to show the debts as they are cleared (Paid off).

To know how many payments to pay off: You divide column 2 by column 6 = the number of months in column 7.

First you use your disposable income to increase the payments on debt 1, what will quickly clear that debt, at which point you now have even more disposable money all off which you use to accelerate the payment of debt 2, as each debt is paid you roll it over to really accelerate the payment on the next debt. Once you pay all debts off, then you have ALL of the disposable income to invest. Now you have gone from debt to building wealth.

Invest wisely NEVER go back to credit cards or loans only live on a cash basis. Moreover, plan for retirement.

Name of Debt Total
Balance Monthly
payments Division
Answer Pay off

Priority Additional monthly payments Months to pay off

Column 2 = total debt £————————

Column 3 = Total Monthly payments £————————
We trust that you can see the philosophy, and the benefits of using ALL your disposable money E.G. Income minus outgoings to accelerate repayment of your debts, then the amazing acceleration that takes place as each debt is written off you have extra money to pay of the next debt ( In order of priority).

This is a WIN -WIN situation, once you see it actually working and no more creditors chasing for money, do not relax maintain total commitment this is not just about clearing your debts this is about a new life, (CASH ONLY).

In just a few years, you will be in a position to create wealth for you and your family. You will have taught your children how to manage money, never to worry about you future again.

Now you will really have the respect of your piers, friends and family. You will own every thing the house, cars. Take that five star holiday all paid up front CASH.

I wish you good fortune;

If you need further help or would like the Excel forms to monitor and record transactions FREE please do not hesitate to contact us.

Your Faithfully

Kenneth Yearsley

(Think new future better life no worries or stress, security) Make this commitment get out of debt, to change your spending habits. This is the hard task. Do that and then you can look forward to a new future?

For nearly three years, I continue to impulse buy. Then I started robbing Peter to Pay Paul using one credit card to pay of another, transferring balances, taking out loans. WOW, I had spiraled deep into debt. Under pressure from all the creditors, could not sleep, each month all my salary already committed to creditors, outgoing much higher than my income.

Learn from our mistakes: (It take WILL and commitment, but will change your life for ever) if I can be of any assistant please contact us: (It is free genuine no sign up or sales pitch ) ken@makemoney.us.com

Cat litter is a pretty recent product. Believe it or not, it was only invented in the late 1940’s.

Before that, most people just used dirt from their gardens for litter. Sand was another choice, if it was easily available. Some people used ashes, and others just used shredded newspaper.

Today we have an incredible assortment of cat litters available. How do you choose the best one?

To answer this question, you need to think like your kitty. A common mistake is to choose something you like, instead of considering what your cat may like.

Your cat is more interested in the smell and texture of the litter. You are more interested in odor control, how easy it is to scoop, and if it’s safe for your cat. What it comes down to is, will your kitty use it?

There are many types of cat litter available. Your options include traditional clay litter, clumping (scoopable) litter, and alternative or natural litters made from paper, corncob, orange peel, wheat, wood, grass, silica, and even peanut shells.

Clay litter is the most widely-used because it can absorb between 75% and 100% of its weight in moisture. Just remember that cats don’t like stepping on wet litter. Plus wet litter smells bad, both to humans and cats. So you’ll need to keep the feces scooped out, and change it twice a week to keep both you and your feline friend happy.

Clumping litters are very popular today. The cat’s urine causes the litter to form clumps which can be scooped out. This is great because you don’t need to change all the litter. You just replace what has been scooped out. Your cat likes the soft texture, and there’s less odor, since the odor source has been removed.

Many cats prefer the sand-like texture of the clumping litters as it’s easier on their paw pads.

Keep in mind that some clumping litters clump better than others. The less expensive ones that break apart easily are harder to scoop. You should also change the litter completely at least once a week. A better quality clumping litter is easier to scoop every day, and may last longer.

A natural litter may appeal to you, but it may not appeal to your cat. If it has a texture and smell different from what your cat is accustomed to, she may not recognize it as cat litter. If this happens, she may try to hold her urine, which can lead to health problems, or she may use your carpet instead.

Avoid perfumed litters. They may smell good to you, but most cats are repelled by them.

If you want to start using a different kind of cat litter, buy a new litter box for it. Keep the old box (and litter) until you know that your cat is actually using the new litter. Let your kitty discover the box on her own. You may want to take some urine or feces from her old box and put it in the new one so that she gets the idea. If she likes it, great! If not, go back to the old litter.

Once you and your furry friend find a litter you both like, stick with it to avoid litter box problems and cat urine odor.

Darlene L. Norris invites you to read How Can I Get My Cat To Use The Litterbox? for the solution to your litter box problems.

Visit http://yourcatcareguide.com/wordpress now to sign up for The Cool Cat Care Ezine, and receive your free copy of Pamper Your Cat, a collection of 100 recipes for treats and main dishes for your favorite kitty. Your cat will love you for it!