The Raven Paradox - How Hempel’s Treatise Questioned the Scientific Process of Inductive Reasoning

Wednesday 14 January 2009

THE RAVEN PARADOX - THE FLAWS IN THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD

HEMPEL’S All use reasoning and at some stage, to create hypotheses and design robust experiments. In a beautiful and elegant treatise, the German philosopher Carl G Hempel, in 1965, showed that there were flaws in these long-established processes. His Raven Paradox called into question the established processes of inductive reasoning, generalization and falsifiability

THE INDUCTIVE HYPOTHESIS Imagine that a scientist, after years of going for long walks in the countryside, observes that every single raven he has ever seen is black. As a dutiful researcher, he uses inductive reasoning to postulate the hypothesis:

“All ravens are black.”

This is a perfectly acceptable conditional hypothesis. , it is testable, because you could sample raven populations and verify that they are all black. The statement is also falsifiable because even one non-black raven amongst the sampled would disprove the hypothesis.

This is all great science, so far, following the established methods of inductive reasoning. The researcher could even design an experiment to sample raven populations, with thousands of ravens observed. If they are all black, the hypothesis is supported and plausible. Over time, repeated experiments and observations further confirm this and the hypothesis becomes accepted as a law.

THE PROBLEM OF GENERALIZATION AND FALSIFIABILITY The first part of the Raven Paradox proposal questions the process of generalization. It is practically impossible to sample every single raven in the world and there may a few non-black individuals. Hempel was not trying to comment upon the exact science, but as an interesting aside, about 1 in 10 000 raven eggs contain partially or fully albino birds.

Most albino birds are more visible to predators, suffer from and may be a localized . The of seeing an albino raven are very small and sightings are extremely rare. A researcher could sample many thousands of Ravens and not see one white bird, even though they do exist.

Thus, the of falsifiability is questioned and undermined by the Raven Paradox. Although the original hypothesis is technically falsifiable, in practical it is very difficult to disprove, because the chances of observing a white Raven are very slim. Even if you sampled the entire known of ravens, there may be an undiscovered group containing a non-black individual.

FLAWS IN THE INDUCTIVE REASONING PROCESS The next part of the Raven Paradox questions the processes of reasoning and deduction that are an integral part of the scientific process. When a researcher states that all ravens are black, the laws of demand that this conditional statement has a contrapositive, statement.

Therefore, according to inductive reasoning, “Everything that is not black is not a raven.” This means that every non-black object observed, that is not a raven, equally strengthens the hypothesis. There are a countless number of non-black objects in the universe and we should pity the poor statistician who has to analyze this!

To take the analogy further, another researcher in another part of world, through fluke, may have only seen one raven in their life, which happened to be white. Their deduced hypothesis may be that “All ravens are white.” Every non-white object, which is not a raven, strengthens this opposing hypothesis too. This is the Raven Paradox.

THE END OF THE SCIENTIFIC PROCESS? What does this paradox mean? Has the world of science come crashing down around our ?

The answer is a resounding NO!

The Raven Paradox is a useful philosophical and helps to ensure that we constantly probe and test the steps of the established scientific processes. The examples given in the paradox are simplistic and unlikely, merely serving as an exercise to test the boundaries of the of science.

In reality, for the vast majority of cases, Hempel’s treatise makes no difference and the normal reasoning and experimental design processes perfectly well. The paradox does not detract from science, but actually enhances it, by preventing from believing that they have proved something beyond .

The Raven Paradox should remind every scientist of the dangers of generalization and that they must ensure that all hypotheses are realistically falsifiable. If the researcher has said, “All ravens in Norway are black”, this is more realistic as ornithologists could feasibly observe every raven in Norway.

PARADIGM SHIFTS Even long-standing theories, which became established as laws and immovable paradigms, can be proved incorrect over time. Science is really all about testing probabilities and . If something has a 99% chance of being correct then it should be accepted as the likely explanation.

The chances of someone seeing only one raven in their life, which happens to be white, are tiny. However, this is not the same as impossible and that possibility must never be ignored. This is why all experiments are rigorously validated and reviewed before gaining widespread acceptance, to minimize the effects of the Raven Paradox.

For example, Newton’s laws were accepted as until Einstein’s theories blew them out of the water. In turn, General Relativity is not the answer to fundamental physics and has been superseded by other theories.

This is how science evolves, by challenging and adapting established paradigms and laws. The creation of Chaos Theory was a perfect example of ‘maverick’ chipping away at the established laws until the theory could no longer be ignored. It eventually burst into the public consciousness and fractal appeared as prints on T-Shirts.

Hempel’s Raven Paradox stands to remind us all that no theory, however established, should be immune to challenge or debate. As new evidence is , science must adapt and change to assimilate the new data.

Martyn lives in the beautiful Peloponnese area of Greece and is absorbing the buried deep within the bones of the land.

He specializes in science and articles.

Please find the at http://www.experiment-resources.com

Martyn’s website is at http://www.amethyst-web.net

The Basics of Mechanics - Dynamics and Thermodynamics Explained

Sunday 7 December 2008

You who read this, may be an engineer, a , an , a student, or even someone without an engineering background. My is that the general public has little of and even engineers and other professionals often lack in basic insights, in of being advanced in their specific fields. This often leads to unfeasible projects and wrong , based on wrong assumptions, that no computer can correct.

I myself am a graduated engineer on B.Sc level in both mechanics and electrics. Nevertheless, most of what I know worth knowing as an engineer today, I learned from practical experience and backing it up with own theoretical studies afterwards. It forced me to on . When you have the right, the rest is just , where the computer can be very helpful, but don’t let it “think” for you!

If you have no engineering background, why would you need to have some basic of all this, you may ask? Well, we live in a technological society and so we are confronted with technological matters and products, that we need to understand the of to make proper . Ever bought expensive “energy-saving” lamps, while in the same time needing to heat your ? Do you think hydrogen and/or fuel cells are energy sources? Do you think energy can be produced and consumed? Would you invest in solar panels, or other technology for your ? The more these kinds of things apply on you, the more you need to read this article.

The Laws of Newton

The metric, or SI system of units is based on the laws of Newton and so is most of modern mechanics and dynamics. They are essential for basic understanding:

  • 1. A mass object persists in its momentary motion to speed and direction, unless it is forced to change it by external forces working on it.
  • 2. The acceleration of an object is proportional with the force F working on it and inverse proportional with its mass m. Hence, the acting force is given by: F = m.a
  • 3. A force acting on an object, will yield a counter force of the same strength in the opposite direction: action = reaction.

Although these laws sound simple, they are often wrongly applied, or overlooked. Especially the third law appears to be the most fundamental one, still not fully understood by Science and subject for discussions on the highest levels (how can you move a table for example, as it pushes back with the same force?).

Power and Energy.

Power and energy are very often mixed up. For example a lightning, causing a tree to split into half, is very powerful, but it has very little energy, because it lasted only a fraction of a second. Energy is the range of power and time. Power is expressed in Watt and energy in Joule - 1 Watt thus is 1 Joule per second, inversely 1 J = 1 Ws (Watt second). If you during one hour would apply a power of 1000 Watt (1 kW = 1 kJ/s), which approximately is what a flat iron takes, the energy involved is 1 kWh and this is thus equal to 3600 kJ. If you instead would develop that energy in one second, the power becomes 3600 kW, or 3.6 MW - a small power plant! If thus a lightning would have a power of say 10 GW and lasted 1 millisecond (it looks much longer, because of the glowing air around it), it contained an amount of energy of just 10 MJ = 10,000 kJ, not more than 2.8 kWh, or to power a flat iron for around three hours! If you in would read dimensions like kilowatt per hour, or horsepower per hour, you can know that the author has no idea what he/she is talking about.

Energy is also the range of force and traveled way. If you lift up a mass of 1 kg to a height of 1 meter, the force needed for that is the range of mass and gravity acceleration, as per Newton’s second law. On , gravity acceleration is 9.8 meter per second square, which we can round to 10. The lifting force then becomes 10 kilogram meter per second square, which is called the Newton (N) and the done is then 10 Nm (Newton meter), which is 10 Joule: 1 J = 1 Nm.

The same confusing exists around temperature and energy. What would you rather have in your hand, a 1 inch red glowing sewing needle, or a 4 inch red glowing bolt? Though both have the same temperature, the needle will just cause you a blister, whereas with the bolt, you won’t have a hand any more. The bolt contains much more energy (more mass) than the needle and that makes the difference, not the temperature.

If you would be interested in a solar panel to heat water in your , the temperature it can yield is therefore not that important. You pay for energy instead and that is what you want to save on. Ideally, a solar water heater should on a low temperature, so it doesn’t loose too much heat through its insulation and produce a larger water flow instead. You then save more energy = , because of the higher efficiency on which your solar panel works. To reach your desired water temperature in the kitchen and bathroom, you can heat additionally with say an electrical heater. Combination with a heat pump, also taking up heat from your warm waste water, would give the absolute best results (but high installation costs). Read more about that at the end of this article.

However, manufacturers of solar panels optimize on temperature, which is a good selling argument for the energy-unaware public. At higher temperatures, the size and thus the costs of the whole installation, including storage , become lower, which also sells better. They don’t talk very much, or at all about efficiency, being the between how much solar energy hits the solar panel and how much of that you can use in the end. They talk about capacity instead - solar energy is “free”!

Next to consider is Pressure. Usually it is that of a fluid, like a gas. It is expressed in Pascal (Pa) which is force (N) per unit of area and thus 1 Pa = 1 N/sqm (Newton per square meter). at is roughly 100 kPa, thus 100,000 N/sqm. In technical descriptions it is also often called the bar - 1 bar is thus . Pressure can also be seen as in materials, tension. In the SI system of units, pressure and tension are thus both expressed in Pascal.

Then there is -pressure. This is what makes a knife . The sharper a knife, the smaller its edge area (A) is and for a given force (F), the -pressure (F/A) becomes larger, also expressed in Pascal. With this, all units in the SI-system are given. It has only three basic units, the kg for mass, the meter for length/distance and the second for time. No are needed

Circular Motions.

From Newton’s third law follows the that on an object in mechanical rotation, two forces are working, a centripetal one, pulling the objects towards the center of rotation, and a centrifugal one, tending to push it out radially away from that center. If the mechanical with the center of rotation suddenly is broken, in that very moment no forces are working on the object any longer and thus it will move as per Newton’s first law, meaning it keeps its speed in the direction it had in the moment just before losing . That speed was directed tangentially and thus the object will “fly out” in the tangential direction, not radially. In fact, centrifugal forces do not exist, because then there would be no resulting force to keep an object in its circular path - only the centripetal force exists. This is a hot discussion point in Science - Newton’s third law.

Hence, when you are in a car that makes a sharp curve, your body does not push against the inside of the car (centrifugal), but the inside of the car pushes your body into the curve (centripetal). As per Newton’s first law, your body wants to keep its direction of motion, straight , just before entering the curve - it’s called . There is only one force, the centripetal one (free motions in gravitational fields, such as orbits of planets and satellites, are described in General Relativity, which we won’t discuss here).

From this follows the of “inertial” systems, which are frames of reference in which Newton’s laws are valid. An accelerated system is thus not an inertial system, because motions described in it, would not follow Newtonian laws. This causes a severe point of , as follows:

If you are an of “fantastic” mechanical machines, your really should understand the implements of . (p) is the amount of motion, being the range of speed (v) and mass (m), which is equal to the range of working force (F) and the (t): F.t = m.v = p. An has a direction, which (kinetic) energy has not and therefore impulses can have a positive or a negative sign between opposite directions of motion. Because is a function of force (the time-derivative of it), Newton’s third law requires that the sum of all impulses of components within a system (machine) must be zero. However, many inventors, not being aware of this, “create” a resulting , that accelerates the system.

What they do is mixing up reference systems and with energy. If you consider a mechanical system (machine), that has a certain total mass, but also internally parts, the resulting of those parts, the sum of all impulses, will be zero relative the system’s center of gravity, but not necessarily relative a resting frame of reference (an observer) in which the whole system (machine) may be (at constant speed). The sum of kinetic energy of all the internally parts, is of course a positive value (negative energy is less than nothing). This value is the system’s internal (kinetic) energy. Since this internal energy is needed to keep the internal parts , there cannot be any energy left to accelerate the system (machine) as a whole. On the , energy must be applied all the time to overcome the that the internally parts are subjected to, otherwise they would come to a halt. This applied energy converts to heat.

Sadly, there are several patents on according designs, claiming to be “inertial drives” for space-ships or whatever. Their inventors, some of which may have ruined their private economies on this, were not confident with the of dynamics, as outlined above. See some of those unfortunate examples here: http://jnaudin.free.fr/html/IPEmain.htm

Mechanical Engineering Concepts

Now, imagine you had a ball that is perfectly spherical and a table that is perfectly smooth, so when the ball is placed on the table, the area becomes a dimensionless point - zero whatever. Then the -pressure F/0 becomes infinite, regardless how light the ball is - something must break. No material could withstand an infinite -pressure and from this follows that not even with the most fantastic materials, yet to be developed, a frictionless machine could ever be built (that would require ideal point and line contacts).

Some inventors have a problem with that, like a patent I once saw, where a 15 cm (6 inch) diameter cylinder was rotating at 1500 rpm in a somewhat larger cylinder, supported by a number of smaller rollers in the size of just a few millimeters - it looked like a ball- in cross section. These rollers would rotate at roughly 50,000 rpm. You look in any table what the admissible speeds are and you would see that this design exceeds the limits by far; self-destruct through !

Another problem that many inventors have is judging leakage potential. Leakage is a function of pressure ratio, not of pressure difference and it varies to the third power with the clearance between the boundaries. It means that the same sealing device, that would leak in an however deep submerged submarine, would leak more in a space craft, because there the pressure ratio to vacuum is infinite - many don’t seem to know that. In addition, even less known, is that the best sealing is obtained with a single, unbroken sealing line, ideally a circle.

Therefore, the reciprocating circular piston machine will always prevail over any rotational displacement concept, that contains several broken (discontinuous) sealing lines. These rotational concepts can be used and are used in low-duty applications, where they have their advantages, such as in air-driven hand tools, industrial compressors, etc, but not in heavy-duty combustion engines. This is why the Wankel never became , except a few years in from German NSU, that went bankrupt on it in the 1970-ies.

One can see the most ‘horrible’ designs in various patents, the worst I saw being an engine, consisting of a torus shaped tube, with a slot over its inner length to let through a piston rod, attached to a circular piston in that torus, while flat plates were sliding radially in and out the torus to form alternate compression and expansion chambers - at best a good cream-wiper (but it got a medal in an inventors contest - its glorious funeral)!

Many inventors have tried to find a linear transmission, that can replace the pendulous crankshaft. It has various disadvantages, such as causing vibrations of higher order, but most of all causing side-forces on the pistons, resulting in excessive wear and leakage there. I once read a statement from a development manager at Volkswagen in Germany, that the crank mechanism alone stands for 20% of the fuel consumption. All alternative designs I have seen, indeed convert the linear piston motion into a rotating one on the shaft and without causing side forces on the piston, but instead they generate the same or higher side forces on sliding parts elsewhere in the design, causing excessive and wear there - definitely no fuel savings. I have found a design that does not contain any sliding parts, but consists of rotating components only (I got the idea, when I was with my kids in a merry-go-round). Had I only come up with this a good 100 years ago, I could have made it, but now the pendulous crankshaft is so well established in automated production lines, that it can’t be changed any more. I almost hade it made with Compair-Reavel in the UK, around 20 years ago, but also they found it in the end too costly too change their production line - my bad luck!

Thermodynamics

Another basic thing, often misunderstood, is that energy can’t be “used up”. Surely, the you put in your car is used up, but the energy it developed is still there, to stay around for all eternity. All the chemical energy that was stored in the original fuel, is converted to heat. at high temperatures in the car’s engine, but then decaying to heat at ambient temperature. The rest is also converted to heat by , the on the road, the transmission, air , etc. All energy that we “use” with our technology, finally decays to heat at ambient temperature, even the light from your lamps at does that.

So is there the term “waste heat”, as opposed to “useful heat”.What is useful? Take “energy-saving” lamps for example. If you live in a cold , where you have to heat your , a normal hot glowing light bulb actually delivers 100% useful energy, 5% of which is light, the rest is heat, that helps heating your , but this is not what you are told. Only the 5% light is brought forward as “useful” and you are told that you are “wasting” 95% with a normal glow bulb. Only in warm climates, especially third-world countries with very expensive electricity, or in cooled rooms, the use of energy-saving lamps makes sense!

The misconception by the public is that useful energy is “consumed” and waste energy is not. The real situation is that the useful energy is just used, but not “consumed” and is wasted after usage just the same. That’s why your energy bill comes back every month - nothing of what you used, is left. Therefore you read everywhere about “energy production” and “energy consumption”, not in the least used by decision makers in energy politics! It indicates that there is no basic understanding in public society, what energy is about and so unfeasible projects are initiated, wasting time and (your ) .

The First Law of Thermodynamics says that energy cannot be created (produced), nor destroyed (consumed). We can only convert energy from one form to an other and the Second Law of Thermodynamics says that it all finally must decay to heat at ambient temperature and so it does. Even though many know this, that is end of story for them, as far as the First Law is concerned. However, the scientific definition of the First Law says that if you add energy to a system to bring it in an other condition, you must remove the same amount of energy to bring it back in the original condition. Naturally, because if we could remove more, energy would be created from nothing and if less, energy would disappear into nothing. This formulation has great consequences, as follows:

Let’s consider an ideal hydrogen (water) engine, by which we pour water in it on one side and the same water AND useful mechanical energy comes out on the other side. Because the engine returns the same water as was applied ( as , but than condensing to water at ambient temperature), there cannot be a net output from the engine - it would have been created from nothing. If there is an output anyway, this means that the according energy had to be applied as well, not only the water. Indeed, we must apply energy to split the water in hydrogen and oxygen. If that could be done at an efficiency of 100% (electrolysis has only 60%), then that energy could appear as mechanical on the shaft. This then means that the hydrogen only was an energy converter, definitely not an energy source!

Hydrogen does not occur in free form on , like fossil fuels do and therefore hydrogen can never be an energy source. Give me a for every article that says different and I will be well off!If there would be a method to obtain free hydrogen at considerably less energy input than what combustion with oxygen gives in output, yes, then it would become an energy source, but such a method has not yet been found.

Instead of splitting water, hydrogen can be obtained from natural gases, such as methane. It shows however that the overall efficiency of such a hydrogen loop in a combustion engine would have a somewhat lower overall efficiency than using the natural gas (or bio-gas) directly in a combustion engine. Moreover, hydrogen is a very tricky gas to store and to handle. Not only is it very explosive, but it tends to exude through most metals as well. It is very voluminous, around ten times more than air and thus needs to be brought on high pressures to keep the volume down and that takes a of compression energy. Liquefying it would even take more energy, plus a temperature problem for storage as well. There are materials that can absorb hydrogen gas at a lower temperature and give it off again at a higher temperature, surely the better way, but also not very and practical in a distribution system. All together, there is no in hydrogen engines, but it may have an environmental - the only viable argument for using it, provided the consumer wants to pay the higher costs, do you?

The same can be said from fuel cells, working on hydrogen - they produce water () and need a steady supply offresh hydrogen and oxygen to continuously- whereto get how? Yes, the energy that fuel cells are supposed to “produce”, originally came from fossil fuels to manufacture the input hydrogen. Can we call that “non-pollutant” energy? A fuel cell is NOT an energy source, just an energy converter.

The importance of using spontaneity in physical processes is largely unknown, because it has to do with entropy, something not explained very well in schools. So I had to learn in practice, by , that if you want to separate fluids from each other, you must try to find a design by which this happens as spontaneously as possible, for example with “smart” piping, rather than using filters. The more you try to force it about with various design details, the more you will lose in efficiency - you “produce” entropy as it wrongly is called. The more you force about a process (introduce “irreversibilities”, as it is called correctly), the greater the change of entropy is, the lower the efficiency becomes. Entropy is an essential part of the Second Law of Thermodynamics, not to say the whole of it, but yet there is no general agreement among , what entropy actually is - very confusing.

The Second Law is actually not a “real” law, because it is based on observations only, not on any physical . This means that if the observations would change, the Second Law would have to change too, but this hasn’t happened yet, which makes it a law. In we experience that most things don’t happen spontaneously, only accidents, or coincidences in general, do (”Murphy’s Law”). If we want things to happen, we usually have to do for it. Hence we could formulate the Second Law as: “for free only the goes up”. On the internet, this formulation of the Second Law is widely violated by millions of web sites, trying to let you believe that for a small , you can become rich very soon. But that is not engineering (rather “”), so I leave you with that.

In engineering, especially when it comes to sources, the Second Law is also widely violated, or rather ignored. Oh yes, solar energy is free, but you can’t use it for free, why not? Because it is widely spread in Nature and thus the effort to collect it into one point of usage and to present it in a usable form, is very large and you have to pay for that effort. Using fossil fuels is cheaper and easier and that’s what we do instead. The same would be valid for nuclear power, but there the “” have been successful to obstruct it - with thanks from the Arab oil sheiks.

is something the Second Law is very much against, because it wants to spread it out in the environment, not to collect it for our use. Therefore these sources are high-entropy ones, meaning you must do a of to make use of them (low efficiency). There is one exception though and that is hydro-electric power. The forces of nature actually do all the for us, by collecting rain water in high situated reservoirs, ready for us to use; they are low-entropy sources. But also here the “” choose to favor the oil sheikhs instead.

Next would be heat pumps, which are inverted refrigerators. A heat pump absorbs heat from the environment, usually from the ambient air, by generating a cold surface there. This surface is small, but it actually collects heat from large, remote areas, brought by the wind. Also here, the forces of nature do the collecting for us, a second exception on the rule (compare with a storm blowing aside of your wind propeller, without affecting it, or the burning a hole in the ground next to your solar panel, also without affecting it).

The heat pump, as the name says, pumps up the ambient heat to a higher temperature that we can use, for example to heat water. Also its drive power is given off as heat at usage temperature, is thus no loss (where it is in a refrigerator) and so a heat pump can give off between 3 and 4 times more energy than what it takes to run it. If all the of dollars that to date and ongoing are wasted on wind propellers and solar collectors of various kinds, would have been used to provide all with heat pumps, many power plants could have been shut down by now and no more oil would be burned in homes for heating. This however is a with modification. A huge polluting industry, likely using fossil fuels, would be behind all those heat pumps, but that would be the same also for wind propellers, solar panels and the production of hydrogen and fuel cells, all having to be financed by the and making profit as well - the Second Law all right:”For free, only the goes up”

Rudolph N. J. Draaisma
CONSULTING ENGINEER
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Avoiding Commercial Mortgage Loan Mistakes

Thursday 27 November 2008

Although it will not be easy, avoiding key mistakes is likely to eliminate critical problems that often have disastrous consequences. The combined use of advanced strategies and proper precautions is likely to produce improved results.

While we will not be addressing all possible mistakes in this article, we will include several of the most severe issues to anticipate. The problem areas described below are typically more critical than expected by most .

Inexperienced Brokers and -

has recently become more popular with brokers and that previously focused on residential . More and more and brokers are looking for alternative revenue sources due to residential difficulties. Many of them are devoting increased attention to and services.

While this shift might eventually result in a positive outcome for , the immediate impact is a sudden influx of inexperienced residential brokers and attempting to provide for and . For most , the use of inexperienced advisors will be a of potentially serious proportions. As we have written about extensively, there are approximately 25 major differences between residential and , and most residential experts are simply unprepared for .

SBA Refinancing for a -

Because it is more difficult to an SBA or conventional than many realize, it is advisable to thoroughly refinancing options before completing the initial if at all possible. The biggest potential involving an effort to is likely to be an that refinancing can be easily accomplished and whenever the borrower chooses.

In reality most and refinancing situations will require less attractive than the initial . This is especially true with SBA refinancing because the acquisition contains features that will not be available when refinancing. Another potentially critical is to overlook short-term options which will eliminate refinancing problems.

A major obstacle to refinancing a , whether it involves an SBA or not, will be and other restrictions that effectively prevent refinancing for several years. Short term should be considered if a borrower expects that refinancing in the first three years of the is likely.

Specialized Property Issues -

With more specialized properties and , the potential for serious mistakes increases substantially because of the advanced . There is a more limited choice of options due to fewer providing specialized .

From a , office buildings, apartments and retail stores are less specialized. This is due to the likelihood that potential users and renters of such properties are more interchangeable than for a involving specialized uses such as a funeral , golf course and gas station.

The costs for more specialized properties are likely to be more variable and unpredictable than for office buildings, retail stores and apartments. For example, environmental and appraisal requirements for properties such as funeral homes and gas stations will be extensive and .

Solutions and Strategies for Avoiding Mistakes -

The potential mistakes described above can be overcome successfully. It is recommended that find sources offering helpful strategies and background information which will provide a comprehensive comfort level for complicated factors. should thoroughly discuss options with a before refinancing or buying a property or .

Stephen Bush is a commercial real estate investment finance expert. For and strategies about opportunity and , please visit AEX Group => http://aexcommercialfinancing.com

Stock Market Trading Rules

Tuesday 11 November 2008

Despite the widespread agreement, some participants in the debate remained skeptical. Indeed, prescient commentators of that era ocProzac ocasionally expressed the that the interrelationships of stockprice changes are so complex that standard tools like these cannot reveal them. That led to efforts to dispute the model by designing rules that could achieve above-normal returns by uncovering and exploiting these greater .

Among the most primitive though most illustrative rules was Sidney Alexander’s “filter technique.” This is a designed to discern and exploit assumed trends in stockprices that, in Alexander’s piquant , may be “masked by the jiggling of the .”

For instance, a “5% filter rule” for a stockwould say to buy it when the price goes up 5% (and watch it rise to a higher peak); then sell it when the price goes down 5% from that peak(and watch it fall to a lower trough); then short the (i.e., borrow it and sell it at the prevailing price, promising to repay with the same , to be purchased for the price prevailing at the time of repayment); then, when the price rises 5% from that trough, cover the short position. If this works, you get a gain on the initial sale plus a gain on the short position. More important, if it works, prices are following a peak-trough pattern. That means they are not random and the random walkmodel is contradicted.

Alexander’s initial results indicated that such a technique could produce above-normal returns. Subsequent refinements of Alexander’s workby himself and others, including Fama, however, demonstrated that relaxing or changing certain assumptions eliminated the abnormal returns, particularly the original filter technique’s to note that are a cost rather than a when are sold short.

Alexander’s filter technique epitomizes the chartist or technical approach to stockanalysis and , under which a study of past prices (or other data) is used as a basis for predicting future prices. Indeed, Alexander’s filter technique is a conceptual cousin of limit orders and similar techniques prevalent in today. These techniques include conventional technical methods that rely on anomaly effects (the insider, month, weekend, and analyst effects) as well as the more unconventional methods (the hemline indicator, the Super Bowl indicator, and so on).

These and related philosophies such as “momentum ” and “sector rotation” remain of futurology. They are widely and increasingly used by traders and recommended by advisers and brokers. They are nonsense, as many students of the random walkmodel (and EMT) recognize based on the foregoing analysis.

They are nonsense not because of EMT but because they fly in the of analysis. “We shall dismiss these with the that their workdoes not concern ‘’, the trouble with all these tests of the random walk is that they are linear. They do not investigate the of nonlinear price dependence, something that in the early 1960s researchers simply lacked the computer horsepower to do.

The rule test, for example, is linear in that it operates in chronological time (or ). Neither it nor the other old tests consider the possibility that time may be better understood from a that is nonlinear. Einstein demonstrated that time is not absolute but works in of depending on the context, including forward (or linear), backward, circular, slow, and erratic (nonlinear), and can even stand still.

to turn $1000 into $1,00,000, articles on stock market trading and . To get detail about the stock market and finance visit 2stocktrading.com.

Forex Currency Trading Systems - The Fibs Ain’t No Lie - A Systems Approach to Trading the Forex

Tuesday 28 October 2008

When it comes to the Forex having a system is the number one key to . Making as “mechanical” as possible is the only way to sanely trade a where the traders and greed are always in play.

This is where a system shines. Having a system that says when “A” happens you automatically execute trade “B.” This kind of system has a great effect at removing much of our emotional .

How The Systems

As you probably know, Forex is based on the of one to another - called pairs. And these pairs are used to create a trade. For instance you believe that the Euro is due to rise against the - or said another way - you believe the Euro is strong and the US is weak. Based on this you would expect to see the Euro rise in value over the and if it did you would profit.

So the pair you would be is the EUR/USD pair where the first listed, in this case the Euro is called the base . The second, in this case the US , is called the counter or quote . Each pair is quoted with a single number that expresses the between the pairs. So if a quote of 1.4525 were quoted that would mean that it would take 1.4525 Dollars to exchange for a single Euro.

The Fibs

Fibonacci, often called the fibs, are a method of gaining some measure of predictive pricing in the Forex . They are based on the famed number sequence developed by a mathematician named, you guessed it, Fibonacci. The sequence that he developed is a sum where each of the two preceding numbers are added to form the next in the sequence. So a sequence starting from the number 1 would look like 1,1,2,3,5,8…and so on.

The Forex is especially sensitive to the fibs. If you spend any time with your charts you will notice how prices turn at or near Fibonacci numbers.

Now of course then numbers are not as neat and clean as 1,1,2,3,5 etc. In the they look more like. .236, .50, .382, .618, etc., Using this type of number sequence you will find that you can use the Fibs as a price point to enter or exit a position. They offer a seasoned a certain measure of predictive .

They can be used in you system as the response to other so if you get a signal that tells you to enter the long the Euro, then your mechanical response would be to wait until the prices broke through the next Fibonacci line and then enter your position. Waiting for this type of movement would help prove that the price was on the rise.

Of course this is assuming that you expect the price of the Euro to go up, and that is not the only way the could move, but this is the of the Forex, you can trade the up or down. It lets you make in both directions.

For more Forex currency trading systems visit http://ForexTradingRobot.info a site dedicated to systems for seasoned traders and beginners alike.

FOREX 101: Make Money with Currency Trading

Saturday 25 October 2008

For those unfamiliar with the term, FOREX ( EXchange ), refers to an where are bought and sold. The Exchange that we see today began in the 1970’s, when free exchange rates and floating were introduced. In such an environment only participants in the determine the price of one against another, based upon for that .

FOREX is a somewhat unique for a number of reasons. , it is one of the few in which it can be said with very few qualifications that it is free of external controls and that it cannot be manipulated. It is also the largest liquid , with trade reaching between 1 and 1.5 US dollars a day. With this much this fast, it is clear why a single would find it near impossible to significantly affect the price of a major . Furthermore, the of the means that unlike some rarely traded , traders are able to open and close positions within a few seconds as there are always willing buyers and sellers.

Another somewhat unique characteristic of the FOREX is the variance of its participants. find a number of reasons for entering the , some as longer term hedge , while others utilize massive lines to seek large short term gains. Interestingly, unlike blue-chip , which are usually most attractive only to the long term , the combination of rather constant but small daily in prices, create an environment which attracts with a broad range of strategies.

How FOREX Works

Transactions in are not centralized on an exchange, unlike say the , and thus take place all over the world via telecommunications. Trade is open 24 hours a day from Sunday afternoon until Friday afternoon (00:00 GMT on Monday to 10:00 pm GMT on Friday). In almost every time zone around the world, there are dealers who will quote all major . After deciding what the would like to purchase, he or she does so via one of these dealers (some of which can be found online). It is quite common practice for to speculate on prices by getting a line (which are available to those with as small as $500), and vastly increase their potential gains and . This is called marginal .

Marginal

Marginal is simply the term used for with borrowed . It is appealing because of the fact that in FOREX can be made without a real supply. This allows to invest much more with fewer transfer costs, and open bigger positions with a much smaller amount of actual . Thus, one can conduct relatively large transactions, very quickly and cheaply, with a small amount of initial . Marginal in an exchange is quantified in lots. The term “” refers to approximately $100,000, an amount which can be obtained by putting up as little as 0.5% or $500.

EXAMPLE: You believe that in the are indicating that the British Pound will go up against the US . You open 1 for buying the Pound with a 1% at the price of 1.49889 and wait for the exchange to climb. At some point in the future, your predictions come true and you decide to sell. You close the position at 1.5050 and earn 61 or about $405. Thus, on an initial of $1,000, you have made over 40% in . (Just as an example of how exchange rates change in the course of a day, an average daily change of the Euro (in Dollars) is about 70 to 100 .)

When you decide to close a position, the deposit sum that you originally made is returned to you and a calculation of your or is done. This profit or loss is then credited to your .

Strategies: Technical Analysis and

The two fundamental strategies in in FOREX are Technical Analysis or . Most small and medium sized in use Technical Analysis. This technique stems from the that all information about the and a particular ’s future is found in the price chain. That is to say, that all factors which have an effect on the price have already been considered by the and are thus reflected in the price. Essentially then, what this type of does is base his/her upon three fundamental suppositions. These are: that the movement of the considers all factors, that the movement of prices is purposeful and directly tied to these events, and that repeats itself. Someone utilizing technical analysis looks at the highest and lowest prices of a , the prices of opening and closing, and the volume of transactions. This does not try to outsmart the , or even predict major long , but simply looks at what has happened to that in the recent past, and predicts that the small will generally continue just as they have before.

A is one which analyzes the situations in the of the , including such things as its , its political situation, and other related rumors. By the numbers, a ’s depends on a number of quantifiable measurements such as its Central ’s interest , the national level, policy and the of . An can also anticipate that less quantifiable occurrences, such as political unrest or will also have an effect on the . Before basing all predictions on the factors alone, however, it is important to remember that must also keep in mind the expectations and anticipations of participants. For just as in any , the value of a is also based in large part on perceptions of and anticipations about that , not solely on its reality.

Make with on FOREX

FOREX is one of the most potentially rewarding types of available. While certainly the is great, the ability to conduct marginal on FOREX means that potential are enormous relative to initial . Another of FOREX is that its size prevents almost all attempts by others to influence the for their own gain. So that when in one can feel quite confident that the he or she is making has the same opportunity for profit as other throughout the world. While in FOREX short term requires a certain degree of diligence, who utilize a technical analysis can feel relatively confident that their own ability to read the daily of the are sufficiently adequate to give them the necessary to make informed .

Rich McIver is a contributing writer for The Forex : News ( http://www.forexblog.org ).